Fifteen games on the board tonight and every bet I made ends in the fifth inning.
That was not the plan when I sat down. It is what the board kept telling me.
Last night cost us 1.41 units, and all of it came out of the back half of games. Two starters did their jobs and two bullpens gave it all back. St. Louis got one run in five from its starter and lost by one after the pen gave up three. San Francisco got 5.2 innings of one-run ball out of Blade Tidwell and then watched four runs cross after he left.
Tonight the pitching mismatches are real and the bullpens behind them are not worth trusting. So I am buying the part I actually like and skipping the part I do not.
Play One: Mariners and Yankees Under 4 in the First Five
Plus money on an under is rare enough that it deserves a look on its own. This one also happens to be the best number on the card.
Bryan Woo has held the current Yankees roster to a .216 wOBA. Ryan Weathers has struck out 32.3 percent of the Seattle hitters who have faced him.
Seattle has been one of the quietest first-five offenses in baseball all season. New York has not been much better in the early innings against right-handed starting pitching.
Stu Scheurwater has the plate. His games have gone under 13 times out of 21.
The full-game total already came down from 8.5 to 8 before I got there, so the market sees the same thing.
Four runs is the key part. Four is not three. If both teams scratch out a pair through five, this ticket comes back instead of dying, and that cushion is most of why I like it at plus money.
Play Two: White Sox First 5
The cleanest starting pitcher gap on the slate, bought in the window where it actually applies.
Sean Burke has the better strikeout profile and the better recent form. Nick Lodolo is carrying a .373 expected wOBA and the White Sox hitters who have seen him have hit the ball hard.
Lodolo has also averaged under five innings across his last five starts. Cincinnati goes to its bullpen early, and that bullpen has been the worse of the two all year.
I want to be clear about something here, because the obvious version of this bet is the wrong one. Burke's strikeout prop is sitting at 7.5 and people are going to take it. His season rate over the innings he actually pitches puts him closer to six. Bet the side, not the prop.
Play Three: Rangers First 5
My favorite number of the four. Ryan Johnson is the most attackable starter on tonight's board and it is not particularly close.
A 7.11 ERA with a 16.5 percent strikeout rate and a 10.8 percent walk rate. He hands out free bases and gives up hard contact in the same inning, which is how three-run innings get built.
The nice thing about this construction is that Cody Bradford does not have to be good. He just has to be present for five. Texas scoring against Johnson is the entire thesis.
I looked hard at the first-five over here instead and passed. Betting the total means I need the Angels to help, and I do not want to depend on that lineup for anything. The side gets me the same read on Johnson while a quiet Angels night works in my favor rather than against me.
Play Four: Brewers First 5
The thinnest play on the card and the first one I would drop if I were only betting three.
Kyle Harrison is at a 2.84 ERA with a 31.1 percent strikeout rate. Walker Buehler is at 5.07 and has not looked right in a while.
Petco holds down offense, which usually helps whichever starter is genuinely pitching better.
Harrison has not been going deep into games this season. Normally that is a reason to be careful with him. Here it is the reason the first five is the right window, because his advantage is over before his workload becomes a problem.
Even money on the better arm in a pitcher's park is a fine bet. It is not a big one.
What I Passed On
Cubs and Nationals over nine was tempting and I let it go. Jake Irvin is a genuine fade and the weather in Washington is helping, but Shota Imanaga has been excellent over his last five starts and the number already reflects most of the case.
Baltimore at plus money in Minnesota looked like the best dog price on the board until I got to the bullpens. Baltimore's relief group is near a 5.70 ERA. Minnesota's is near 3.10. That is not a spot to take a full-game price.
I also passed the Rays and the Phillies first-five sides. Both handicaps are fine. Both prices ask you to pay up on a market where a tie loses, and that combination has to be cheaper than it is tonight.
Today's Card
| Play | Odds | Risk | To Win | First Pitch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners/Yankees F5 Under 4 | +110 | 0.91u | 1.00u | 7:05 ET |
| White Sox F5 -0.5 | -105 | 1.05u | 1.00u | 7:40 ET |
| Rangers F5 -0.5 | -105 | 1.05u | 1.00u | 9:38 ET |
| Brewers F5 -0.5 | +100 | 1.00u | 1.00u | 9:40 ET |
Total: 4.01 units of risk to win 4.00 units
Four bets, four games, and not one of them needs a closer.
Two resolve before eight o'clock and two more just after ten. Nothing here depends on a manager making a good decision in the seventh.
Let's get to the window.