The one I like most is the Under in San Diego and New York. Nolan McLean is striking out 28 percent of the hitters he faces, keeps the ball off the barrel, and the Padres have barely seen him. If he gives the Mets five or six good innings, both bullpens are good enough to take it from there.
We are deep into August now, which is always one of the tougher stretches of the baseball season to handicap. Rotations are getting shuffled, innings are being managed, bullpens are getting worked, and plenty of teams look different than they did a few months ago.
There is no reason to force a bigger card just because there are games on the board.
Football is almost here too. College football starts soon and the NFL is right behind it. Both will become a much bigger part of what we are doing here through the fall. Baseball is not going anywhere, but it will not be the only thing on the board much longer.
What I'm Tracking
Both bullpens in Queens are good
This is a big part of the Under for me.
Low totals can look great for six innings and then get destroyed once the starters come out. I do not have the same concern here.
San Diego has one of the best bullpens in baseball and the Mets have been good late too. If this game gets into the sixth inning without either team putting up a big number, I like who is coming in behind the starters.
Walker Buehler has also been solid in his last two starts, allowing only two earned runs with eight strikeouts over 10 innings.
If he gives us another start in that range tonight, I like where this game sits once it gets handed over to the bullpens.
Gabby Williams does not need a big scoring night
That is what I like about the PRA number.
Williams can get there with points, rebounds or assists. If the shot is not falling, she still has other ways to clear 18.5.
She has already gone over this number in both meetings with Dallas this season, including 19 points, four rebounds and one assist against them 10 days ago in only 22 minutes.
Dallas has also been struggling defensively.
Official Plays
Nolan McLean is the biggest reason I like this one.
He has a 3.42 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP and is striking out 28 percent of the hitters he faces. The Padres have not done much against him in their limited looks either.
San Diego is also not an offense I expect to come into Citi Field and blow this game open.
If both starters give us five or six solid innings, I really like where this game sits once it gets handed over to the bullpens.
San Diego can shorten a game as well as anybody once it gets late, and the Mets have enough arms to do the same.
Best bet tonight.
This is my favorite prop on the board tonight.
Williams does not need 20 points to cash it. A normal scoring night with a few rebounds and assists gets her there.
She has cleared 18.5 PRA in both games against Dallas this season, and the last one came in only 22 minutes.
If she gets her normal workload tonight, I like her chances of getting over this number again.
Today's Card
| Game | Play | Odds | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padres at Mets | Under 8 (BEST BET) | -112 | 1.50u |
| Wings at Valkyries | Gabby Williams Over 18.5 PRA | -106 | 1.06u |
Total risk: 2.56 units
The Under in Queens is the one I like most, and Gabby Williams gives us a prop with a lot of different ways to get home.