Over and Over

There are a lot of pitching setups on this board I want to attack, especially once these games get into the middle innings.

Miami and Philadelphia is my favorite play of the night.

What I'm Tracking

Bullpens are going to matter

There are a few games tonight where I expect to see a lot of bullpen innings.

Bryan Hudson is opening for the White Sox. Zebby Matthews has not finished six innings in any of his last three starts. Ryan Feltner is averaging fewer than 15 outs per start. George Klassen has only made it through five innings once in his first four starts.

The earlier we get into some of these bullpens, the better.

Bad defense can keep innings going

Minnesota comes into tonight at minus 21 outs above average and Philadelphia is at minus nine. Those are the two worst marks on tonight's slate.

That matters on an Over.

A ground ball that should end an inning turns into another baserunner. One extra out gives the middle of the lineup another chance, and sometimes that is all it takes to turn a quiet inning into a crooked number.

Official Plays

Philadelphia should have plenty of chances to score against the Miami pitching setup, and I do not need the Marlins to light up Zack Wheeler for this to get there.

Miami just needs to contribute.

The Phillies defense sits at minus nine outs above average and their bullpen has been a problem lately. Philadelphia's available relievers come into tonight with a 4.91 ERA and the bullpen has a 7.71 ERA over the last three games.

If Miami can get a couple early, I really like our chances once this gets into the later innings.

Best bet tonight.

That is not a great combination against Atlanta.

Tyler Mahle has been pitching well, which is the biggest concern here, but he is still averaging around 16 outs a start.

Minnesota's bullpen has also been getting hit hard lately.

I think Atlanta does most of the work here. If Minnesota can give us three or four, I like our chances of getting past 8.5.

Cubs 10, White Sox 5
White Sox 8, Cubs 3
White Sox 9, Cubs 8
Cubs 7, White Sox 5

That is 15, 11, 17 and 12 runs.

Bryan Hudson is opening for the White Sox, with Erick Fedde expected to handle the bulk innings behind him. Fedde has been getting hit hard in August and has had all kinds of problems with the Cubs.

Kevin Gausman has a 6.17 ERA through his first two starts with Chicago.

Then we get the wind blowing out at Wrigley around 14 miles per hour.

I also like getting nine instead of 9.5. If this ends 5-4, we get our money back.

The rain is the one thing I am watching here.

2.2 innings
2 innings
4 innings
6 innings

Three of the four ended before he recorded the 15th out.

He has also walked almost four hitters per start, which is a problem against a Houston lineup that can make pitchers work.

The six-inning start last time out is the concern. He was much better and only needed 87 pitches to get through six.

Houston is a tougher lineup to navigate though, and if the command starts getting away from him, I do not think the Angels are going to force him through five innings.

At plus money, I will take Under 14.5 outs.

Ryan Feltner has a 5.59 ERA and a 6.19 ERA in eight career appearances against the Dodgers. He averages fewer than 15 outs and the Colorado bullpen behind him has an ERA over 5.00.

That is a bad setup against this Dodgers lineup at Coors.

Eric Lauer has had his own problems with Colorado. He is 3-6 with a 6.21 ERA in 15 career starts against the Rockies.

It is Coors, it is 76 degrees and I do not trust either pitching setup enough to stay away from the Over.

This could be the right handicap and still finish 7-4. That is the risk when you are betting a number this high.

I am still playing it.

Today's Card

Total risk: 5.12 units

Miami and Philadelphia is the one I like most.

After that, it is Over and Over tonight.

Let's get to the window.