Who's Got It Better Than Us!

Two plays for me tonight, one in baseball and one in the NFL preseason.

The Yankees are getting Gerrit Cole at basically a pick'em price in Baltimore, and I like the Chargers at pick'em against San Francisco because of the quarterback depth behind the starters.

Yankees ML at Baltimore

The Yankees are the play for me tonight at basically a pick'em price.

Gerrit Cole gets the ball for New York and he has been pitching well. Cole owns a 3.22 ERA with a 3.56 xFIP and 3.46 SIERA, and he has allowed just four earned runs over his last three starts.

Baltimore counters with Kyle Bradish. His 3.65 ERA looks solid, but the numbers underneath it are not quite as strong. Bradish carries a 4.01 xFIP and 4.31 SIERA, and he lasted only three innings in his last start.

The recent team form also leans New York.

The Yankees have won three straight and have been one of the better road teams in baseball at 40-28 away from home. Baltimore has dropped three straight and is just 32-32 at Camden Yards.

At this price, I like getting the better starter and the team playing better baseball without having to lay much juice.

I am keeping this strictly to the moneyline. The total has dropped to 7.5, both bullpens have been worked, and Cole had a small velocity flag in his last start. That is enough to keep me away from laying the 1.5 runs in a game that could easily stay tight.

Chargers PK vs. San Francisco

The Chargers are the side for me at pick'em.

At this number, I like Los Angeles because I trust their quarterback depth more over the course of four quarters. San Francisco should have the advantage early with Brock Purdy, but preseason games are rarely decided only by what happens with the starters on the field.

Once the rotations begin, I think the Chargers are in the better position to keep getting competent quarterback play and move the offense.

That matters quite a bit in preseason football. You are betting on the entire depth chart, not just the first unit, and I think Los Angeles has the better setup once both teams start working through their quarterback rotations.

The number matters too. We are not laying points. At PK -110, the Chargers just need to win the game, and I am comfortable backing their depth at essentially an even number.

Today's Card

Total risk: 2.15 units

Two different sports, but pretty simple reasoning on both. Give me the Yankees with Cole at a near pick'em price and the Chargers at PK with the quarterback depth to hold up for four quarters.

Let's get to the window.