Two plays for me tonight, one in baseball and one in the NFL preseason.
The Yankees are getting Gerrit Cole at basically a pick'em price at Camden Yards, and I like the Chargers at pick'em against San Francisco.
Yankees ML at Baltimore
The Yankees are the play for me tonight at basically a pick'em price.
Gerrit Cole gets the ball for New York and he has been pitching well. Cole owns a 3.22 ERA with a 3.56 xFIP and 3.46 SIERA, and he has allowed just four earned runs over his last three starts.
Baltimore counters with Kyle Bradish. His 3.65 ERA looks solid, but the numbers underneath it are not quite as strong. Bradish carries a 4.01 xFIP and 4.31 SIERA, and he lasted only three innings in his last start.
The recent team form also leans New York.
The Yankees have won three straight and have been one of the better road teams in baseball at 40-28 away from home. Baltimore has dropped three straight and is just 32-32 at Camden Yards.
At this price, I like getting the better starter and the team playing better baseball without having to lay much juice.
I am keeping this strictly to the moneyline. The total has dropped to 7.5, both bullpens have been worked, and Cole had a small velocity flag in his last start. That is enough to keep me away from laying the 1.5 runs in a game that could easily stay tight.
Chargers PK vs. San Francisco
The Chargers are the side for me at pick'em.
San Francisco should have the edge early with Brock Purdy, but preseason games are decided over four quarters, not by the starters. Once the rotations begin, I think the Chargers keep the offense moving longer than the 49ers do.
The number matters too. We are not laying points. At PK -110, the Chargers just need to win the game, and I am comfortable taking that at an even number.
Today's Card
| Play | Odds | Risk | To Win | First Pitch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees ML | -105 | 1.05u | 1.00u | 6:35 ET |
| Chargers PK | -110 | 1.10u | 1.00u | 10:00 ET |
Total risk: 2.15 units
Two different sports, but pretty simple reasoning on both. Give me the Yankees with Cole at a near pick'em price and the Chargers at PK at home.
Let's get to the window.
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