Two plays for me tonight, and they share a theme. Both are home teams with the better season, the better recent form, and a starting pitcher matchup I like, and neither one costs much juice.
The Padres are my top play at nearly even money against Pittsburgh, and I like the White Sox at home against a Texas starter who has been getting hit hard for a month.
Padres ML vs. Pittsburgh
This is the best bet on the card, and the price is the headline. San Diego is 71-60 and playing at home against a 63-69 Pirates team, and the moneyline is sitting at -108.
The reason it is that cheap is Braxton Ashcraft, and I want to be fair to him. He threw a complete game two starts ago and followed it with eight innings of one-run ball. He has earned the short number.
But his season profile has a real split in it. Left-handed hitters carry an OPS more than 160 points higher against him than righties do, and 15 of the 21 home runs he has allowed came from the left side. San Diego can stack left-handed bats in this spot, and Petco at night is a fine place to bet on run prevention holding up on the other side too.
Robbie Ray matches the form. He has a 2.67 ERA over his last five starts and is coming off six innings of one-run ball in New York. Lefties have managed one home run off him all year.
The team direction is not close. The Padres have won three straight, are 7-3 in their last ten, and are 40-26 at home. Pittsburgh has lost three in a row and is 29-37 on the road.
I am keeping this to the moneyline. Ashcraft is too hot to lay a run and a half against, and this game profiles low scoring. The Padres just need to win it.
White Sox ML vs. Texas
The second play is Chicago at home at -124.
Kumar Rocker has been in a bad stretch for a month. He has given up 11 earned runs over his last three starts, the walks have crept up, and the season-long damage against him comes from the left side, where hitters are batting .287 with an .851 OPS and 11 home runs. The White Sox can fill the lineup with exactly those bats.
José Urquidy is the reason this is the second play and not the first. His workload is still being rebuilt, so I do not expect a deep night. But his last time out was six shutout innings with eight strikeouts at Wrigley, easily his best outing since coming back, and Chicago has fresher arms behind him if his night ends after five.
The form edge is the same shape as the Padres game. Chicago is 39-26 at home. Texas is 29-36 on the road and a game under .500 overall.
At -124 for the better team at home against a slumping starter, I am comfortable at a slightly smaller size.
Today's Card
| Play | Odds | Risk | To Win | First Pitch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| White Sox ML | -124 | 0.93u | 0.75u | 7:40 ET |
| Padres ML | -108 | 1.08u | 1.00u | 9:40 ET |
Total risk: 2.01 units
Simple night. Two home teams playing better baseball than their opponents, two starting pitcher matchups that lean my way, and neither line asks me to pay for it.
Let's get to the window.