Official Play
The starting pitching edge is the whole game, so bet the innings the starters pitch.
George Kirby has a 3.76 ERA on the season and has been better than that lately, with a 3.14 mark over his last seven starts. His last time out he threw seven scoreless innings against Minnesota.
Casey Legumina is a completely different setup. Tampa has mostly used him in short outings, he owns a 15.9 percent strikeout rate, and opposing hitters have produced a .337 xwOBA and .433 xSLG against him.
That is not a duel. That is one team sending its best arm out for six or seven innings and the other team patching the same innings together.
The full game is trickier, and it is trickier for one reason: Tampa owns the stronger bullpen. Late innings are where this game tilts back toward the Rays.
So we take those innings off the ticket.
The first five is the window where Seattle's edge actually lives. Better starter, better early matchup, home park. And the market is paying plus money for it.
Today's Card
| Play | Odds | Risk | To Win | First Pitch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners F5 ML | +109 | 0.92u | 1.00u | 9:50 ET |
Total: 0.92 units of risk to win 1.00 units
One play. One clean edge.
Let's get to the window.