The Play: Mystics ML
The hottest defensive team in the league is at home, and we are getting a pretty reasonable price to back them.
Washington has won six straight, and the defense has been the biggest reason why. The Mystics rank second in the WNBA in points allowed and have consistently found ways to make life difficult on opposing offenses.
Shakira Austin is also playing some of the best basketball of her career. She has scored 20 or more points in four of her last five games, including 21 points, 11 rebounds and five blocks Friday against Atlanta. We had Washington +6.5 in that game, and they won outright.
I still prefer backing this Mystics team when we are getting points, especially at home. Friday was a perfect example. Getting +6.5 with Washington was a much more comfortable spot than laying points with a team that has done some of its best work as an underdog.
Being the favorite is not exactly Washington's normal forte, but I am fine with them as a short favorite here. At -121, we are not asking them to cover anything. We just need them to beat a Phoenix team going in the opposite direction.
The Mercury come in 12-21 and have lost two straight, including a 75-72 loss at Connecticut on Friday.
I like Kelsey Plum, and she has been really good since the trade. There is no question Phoenix added a major talent. But I am also not sure what else this team has to play for at this point. They are nearly mathematically eliminated from the playoff race, and this season has been a huge letdown for a team that made the Finals last year.
The Plum trade is also pretty puzzling when you look beyond this season. She becomes an unrestricted free agent as soon as the year ends and will be one of the biggest names on the market. Phoenix obviously has to believe it can convince her to stay, potentially on a supermax deal. Otherwise, they basically gave up a first-round pick for a few weeks of Plum during a season that was already slipping away.
Washington is at home, playing much better basketball right now, and I trust the defense to be the difference again.
Give me the Mystics to keep it rolling.
Today's Card
| Play | Odds | Risk | To Win | Tip |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mystics ML | -121 | 1.21u | 1.00u | 3:00 ET |
Total: 1.21 units of risk to win 1.00 units