Most Fridays in July hand you a full slate and very little to separate it. Tonight was the opposite. One game stood out the second I looked at the pitching matchups, and the rest of the card came together around it without me having to force anything.
The one I led with
Boston at Citi Field is the play I built the night around. It is not often you get the better starter and a plus-money price in the same spot, and that is what this is.
Sonny Gray has been one of the most consistent arms in the league all year, and he draws a Mets lineup that has struggled to do damage at home. New York counters with a young starter who is still sorting out his command against big-league bats. When the pitching edge and the price both point the same way on a live dog, that is the number I want to be holding.
Three I liked around it
None of these is the headliner, but each one sat on the right side of a matchup I trust, so they earned a spot.
Kansas City brings one of the quietest road offenses in baseball into Camden Yards. Brandon Young has been steady for Baltimore with clean control and soft contact, and the Orioles are a different lineup at home. The price is short, but the gap between these two bats tonight is wider than the number suggests.
Two of the more hittable starters on the slate meet at a park that plays up for runs in the summer heat. Both bullpens have been leaned on and neither has been reliable late, which is exactly how early crooked numbers hold up. With calm air and two lineups that can put a rally together, eight and a half feels low.
Seattle has been one of the thinnest road offenses in the league, and Tampa Bay is at its best in the controlled indoor setting at home. Nick Martinez has been tough there and mixes enough to keep a light lineup honest. I like the side but not enough to make it a full play, so it goes down for half.
That is the card. Four plays, three and a half units, and a lead play I feel good about at a price that will not last. We will grade all four in the morning, win or lose, and the record moves with it.