Dirty Water, Five Plays

The Dirty Water part of tonight's card is Boston.

The Red Sox have won 14 straight, and Fenway was supposed to host the next chapter of that run. Instead, the weather took over. Baltimore at Boston was postponed before the first pitch, so the streak will have to wait another day.

Pittsburgh at New York also disappeared because of the rain in the Bronx. That game never made the card.

That leaves five live plays.

There were 15 games originally scheduled, but this is not a night where every matchup needs a bet. A few numbers moved during the afternoon, several pitchers come with real command or workload concerns, and some of the better hitter props depend on where guys land in the batting order.

Five plays made the cut.

What I'm Tracking

Milwaukee continues to be one of the most reliable teams in baseball. The Brewers are 63-37, 33-18 at home, and have won four straight. The Mets are 21-31 on the road and only 8-20 against left-handed starters.

San Diego is moving in the opposite direction. The Padres have lost 14 of their last 20 and continue to struggle to produce early offense. Their first five innings have gone under in 61 of 98 graded games.

Toronto has been one of the weaker teams against right-handed pitching. The Blue Jays are 32-44 in those matchups, and tonight they face a starter who rarely gives away free bases.

Arizona gets one of the most attackable pitchers on the slate. Jack Perkins enters with a 6.87 ERA and has been even worse over the last month.

Cleveland has one of the cleanest starting pitching advantages of the night. Parker Messick controls the strike zone, limits hard contact, and has already handled this Minnesota lineup.

The hitting environments matter tonight too.

Coors Field is playing 40 percent above league average for runs. Citizens Bank Park is 41 percent above average for home runs. Fenway would have been one of the best extra-base-hit environments on the board, but that game is gone.

On the other side, Wrigley Field and T-Mobile Park are two of the best places to look for run suppression. Wrigley is playing 14 percent below average for runs, and Seattle is 13 percent below average.

Those are the spots I am watching.

Jack Perkins has been one of the easiest pitchers on the board to target.

He carries a 6.87 ERA into this start and has posted a 7.39 ERA over his last seven. He has allowed too many baserunners, too much damaging contact, and has not shown a consistent ability to work deep into games.

Arizona is a bad matchup for that profile.

The Diamondbacks have more lineup depth, better defense, and a much stronger bullpen. That matters tonight because Kohl Drake is making his major league debut for Arizona. There is no MLB track record to lean on, and I am not pretending otherwise.

What Arizona does have is a better team around him.

The Athletics have a couple legitimate power bats, especially Shea Langeliers and Tyler Soderstrom, but the lineup gets thin quickly. Oakland's outfield defense has also graded poorly, which gives Arizona another edge in a game where extra outs could matter.

Arizona is projected to score more than five runs, and Perkins is the pitcher I want to attack.

At -132, I am willing to lay it.

Drew Rasmussen is the better pitcher in this matchup.

He enters with a 3.26 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, a 25 percent strikeout rate, and a 4.3 percent walk rate.

That last number matters. Rasmussen does not beat himself.

Kevin Gausman can still miss bats, but his recent form has slipped. Over his last seven starts, he has allowed a 6.27 ERA, eight home runs, and 18 walks in 37.1 innings.

Tampa Bay also has hitters who have seen him well.

Yandy Díaz owns a 1.006 OPS in 20 career plate appearances against Gausman. Chandler Simpson has a 1.333 OPS in 12 trips. Jonathan Aranda has also done damage in a limited sample.

Those numbers are not large enough to carry the bet by themselves, but they support the bigger matchup.

The Rays have the better starter, the stronger bullpen, and the cleaner path to five quality innings.

Toronto has struggled against right-handed pitching all season. The Blue Jays are 32-44 in those games and have had trouble creating enough offense without help from walks and defensive mistakes.

Rasmussen usually does not give them either one.

At close to even money, Tampa Bay is the side.

Parker Messick is the reason this bet made the card.

He enters with a 2.73 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a .281 expected wOBA allowed. Hitters have produced only a .228 expected batting average and a .340 expected slugging percentage against him.

Messick has also handled this Minnesota group.

In 38 plate appearances against the current Twins roster, he has held them to a .263 expected wOBA while walking only 2.6 percent of the hitters he faced.

In 11 previous innings against Minnesota, he allowed three earned runs, struck out 16, and walked two.

The risk is Kendry Rojas.

Rojas has allowed very little damaging contact in a small sample. Hitters have managed only a .187 expected batting average and a .284 expected slugging percentage against him.

The problem is his 18.6 percent walk rate.

He can turn a quiet inning into a bases-loaded situation without giving up a hard-hit ball. That is the biggest threat to the under.

Cleveland is not built to punish every mistake, though. The Guardians make contact and work counts, but this is not one of the most explosive lineups on the board.

Minnesota has some power with Byron Buxton, Ryan Jeffers, Kody Clemens, and Royce Lewis, but Messick has been excellent at limiting barrels and keeping the ball off the sweet spot.

The full eight matters. A 4-4 game pushes.

I would not play this at 7.5.

Walker Buehler is the obvious danger in this bet.

He has struggled recently, and Atlanta is capable of getting to him. This under does not require Buehler to dominate.

The bet is built around San Diego not doing enough on the other side.

The Padres have lost 14 of their last 20 and continue to struggle to generate early offense. Their games have gone under in the first five innings 61 times in 98 graded results.

Reynaldo López is the steadier pitcher. He enters with a 3.50 ERA, and Atlanta has the stronger bullpen once the game gets into the middle innings.

San Diego has hit López in previous meetings, so there is risk here. The Padres have collected 25 hits in 17.1 innings over their last three starts against him.

The difference is that San Diego has not consistently turned contact into runs. The lineup has been too quiet for too long, especially early in games.

Atlanta can score four or five and the under can still cash. The bet is that San Diego stays in the two or three run range.

That has been a common outcome for this offense.

I want the full nine. At 8.5, I am out.

This is not a bet on Brandon Sproat dominating.

Sproat has a 5.16 ERA, an 11.1 percent walk rate, and a .336 expected wOBA allowed. He can create his own problems, especially when he falls behind in counts.

Zach Thornton has been better for New York, but the sample is only three starts. His 2.60 ERA and 0.92 WHIP look great, but there is not enough major league work to treat that as his established level.

The difference is everything around the starters.

Milwaukee is 63-37, 33-18 at home, and has won four straight. The Brewers are also 19-10 against left-handed starters.

The Mets are 21-31 on the road and 8-20 against lefties.

Milwaukee has the deeper lineup, the better bench, and the stronger bullpen. If the game is tied after five innings, I want the Brewers from that point forward.

The market moved toward New York during the day, so I am not chasing this number.

At -130, Milwaukee stays on the card. At -140 or worse, I would pass.

A Few Other Things Worth Watching Tonight

Detroit and Chicago could be the ugliest game on the board. Wrigley is playing 14 percent below average for runs, the wind is blowing in around 16 to 18 miles per hour, and Framber Valdez has held the current Cubs lineup to a .171 wOBA with a 34.3 percent strikeout rate in 35 plate appearances.

Coors is exactly what you would expect tonight. The park is playing 40 percent above average for runs, and both Washington and Colorado are projected to score more than six. Michael Lorenzen has allowed a .358 expected wOBA, a .468 expected slugging percentage, and a 46.4 percent hard-hit rate. Nationals hitter props are going to be popular for a reason.

Chase Burns might be the best pure strikeout arm on the slate. He has a 28.6 percent strikeout rate and has allowed only a .277 expected wOBA. T-Mobile Park is also playing 13 percent below average for runs. The question is whether he gets enough innings to clear a strikeout number that has climbed to 7.5.

Atlanta hitter props are worth a look against Walker Buehler. Matt Olson over 1.5 total bases is one of the better spots on the board, and Austin Riley is the home run sprinkle I would watch. The current Braves lineup has produced a .400 expected wOBA and a .539 expected slugging percentage against Buehler. The better angle is targeting Atlanta bats instead of adding another opinion on the full-game total.

Kendry Rojas has allowed very little hard contact, but his 18.6 percent walk rate is one of the most dangerous numbers on the slate. He can look sharp for two innings and still be out of the game early because he cannot find the zone.

Houston and Miami could get messy fast. Tatsuya Imai has a 14.2 percent walk rate, a 45.9 percent hard-hit rate, and a .345 expected wOBA allowed. Tyler Phillips has also been pitching above his underlying numbers. There is a reason that total has been sitting between nine and 9.5.

Freddie Freeman has the largest meaningful batter versus pitcher sample of the night. He has a 1.121 OPS in 73 career plate appearances against Zack Wheeler. Wheeler is still one of the best pitchers in baseball, but Freeman is one hitter who has consistently seen him well.

The market has also made a few clear statements. Seattle moved from an underdog to a favorite against Cincinnati, the Mets took money against Milwaukee, and San Francisco moved toward favorite territory in Kansas City. That does not mean those sides automatically win, but those are the games where the number is telling you something.

Today's Card

Total risk: 5.93 units
Potential profit: 5 units

Five plays. The numbers are posted. Good luck tonight!

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