The photo is Philadelphia. The play is the Over. That feels about right.
The Dodgers bring the best road offense in baseball into Citizens Bank Park, and the Phillies get Eric Lauer on the other side. Aaron Nola has not done enough to earn the benefit of the doubt, Lauer has a lineup full of problems waiting for him, and 9.5 is not enough to scare me away.
If this game stays under, both lineups owe us an apology.
That is one of two full-game Overs on tonight's card. We are also isolating the first five innings in Texas and Houston, then backing Toronto at home near a pick'em.
Five MLB plays. One unit each. No WNBA tonight. No props dressed up as conviction. Just the card.
This is an owner-selected card. I looked at the board, I liked these five, and I am putting my name on them.
What I'm Tracking
Keeping the bullpens out of it
The Rangers and Marlins-Astros plays are both first-five bets for a reason.
Texas has the better early matchup against Anthony Kay, but I have no interest in turning that into a nine-inning bet on the Rangers bullpen. Five innings is plenty.
The same idea applies in Houston. Sandy Alcantara and Peter Lambert are the part of that game I trust. Once the starters leave, things get less predictable fast.
Sometimes the best handicap is knowing when to leave.
Two starters whose ERAs are dressed better than their numbers
Michael King and Martin Perez both carry respectable ERAs into Atlanta, but the numbers underneath them are not nearly as clean.
King has a 4.62 expected ERA. Perez sits at 4.61. Both pitchers have been getting better results than their contact and command profiles suggest.
That can last for a while. It usually lasts right up until it doesn't.
Atlanta is not the place I want to bet on either pitcher continuing to escape.
Philadelphia has every ingredient for runs
Citizens Bank Park already plays small. Add warm weather, a deep Dodgers lineup, a dangerous Phillies lineup, and two starting pitchers with real questions.
The Dodgers lead baseball in road scoring. The Phillies have enough left-handed power to make Lauer uncomfortable from the first inning. Nola has allowed too much hard contact and too many home runs to trust against Los Angeles.
This does not need to become a 12-10 circus. A normal 6-4 game gets us there.
Toronto gets the full-game treatment
The Blue Jays are the one full-game side on tonight's card.
Griffin Jax has not pitched as well as his surface numbers suggest, and Toronto has already had a good look at him. The Blue Jays also have their main bullpen arms available, which matters when the price is sitting close to even money.
At -106, I do not need Toronto to be perfect. I need them to be better than Griffin Jax for one night.
Official Plays
Anthony Kay enters with a 4.24 ERA, but the numbers behind it are worse.
His expected ERA is 5.33. His FIP is 5.09. He has allowed too much traffic, and he has not been good enough at limiting damage once runners reach base.
Texas has enough right-handed power to take advantage. Jake Burger, Wyatt Langford, Justin Foscue, and Ezequiel Duran all fit the matchup, and the Rangers should get multiple chances to hit with men on base before Kay is finished.
The game is inside at Globe Life Field, so weather is not a factor. Home-plate umpire Ryan Wills has also been one of the strongest under umpires in baseball, with his games averaging only 6.6 runs.
That is fine with me. A lower-scoring game gives more value to the team with the better early matchup.
I like Texas early. I like the Texas bullpen considerably less.
Michael King enters with a 3.34 ERA, but his 4.62 expected ERA tells a different story.
He has not missed enough bats to justify the surface number, and Atlanta has several hitters who match up well against him. Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, and Drake Baldwin should all have opportunities to do damage.
Martin Perez brings similar concerns on the other side. His 3.54 ERA comes with a 4.61 expected ERA and a 4.43 FIP.
San Diego can put the ball in play, work counts, and force Atlanta into its bullpen earlier than it wants.
The weather helps too. It will be hot and extremely humid in Atlanta, with temperatures in the upper 80s and a dew point in the mid-70s. That is good hitting air.
Both starting pitchers have ERAs that look a lot better than the numbers underneath them. Tonight feels like the night the disguise comes off.
This is the best offensive setup on the night slate.
Aaron Nola enters with a 5.68 ERA and a 4.96 FIP. He has allowed too much hard contact, too many home runs, and too many early scoring chances.
That is a bad combination against a Dodgers lineup that leads baseball in road scoring.
Eric Lauer has been winning games for Los Angeles, but Philadelphia is built to give him problems. Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott, and Alec Bohm give the Phillies quality at-bats from the top of the order through the middle.
The park helps both teams. The weather helps both teams. The bullpens are likely to get involved.
I do not need a home run derby. I need both teams to contribute.
If this game stays under, both lineups owe us an apology.
Sandy Alcantara has been solid all season.
He enters with a 3.89 ERA, 3.68 expected ERA, and 3.83 FIP. He limits walks, keeps the ball in the park, and can work through a lineup without creating his own problems.
Peter Lambert has also pitched well. His 3.03 ERA and 3.29 expected ERA support what he has done, and Miami has not been an offense I want to trust to create a big inning on demand.
Daikin Park slightly suppresses scoring, and home-plate umpire John Libka has been one of the strongest under umpires in baseball. His games are 13-4 to the under and have averaged 7.8 runs.
The full-game under was tempting, but the first five is cleaner.
This is a bet on Alcantara and Lambert. I have no interest in asking six relievers to behave themselves.
A 2-2 score still cashes.
Griffin Jax has a 4.08 ERA, but his 5.32 expected ERA raises a much bigger concern.
He has allowed too much quality contact, and Toronto has already faced him once, producing eight hits and four walks.
The Blue Jays have several hitters who fit the matchup. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, and Ernie Clement should all have chances to put the ball in play and force Jax to work.
Toronto is expected to open with Braydon Fisher before turning the game over to Spencer Miles. Miles has a 3.52 ERA, 3.21 expected ERA, and 3.10 FIP.
That setup has been more dependable than what Tampa Bay is getting from Jax right now.
The dome removes the weather question, and Toronto's key bullpen arms are available.
At -106, this is close enough to a pick'em. I have Toronto as the better team tonight.
Extra Hitter and Prop Notes
These are not official plays, but they are the hitter angles that stood out.
Kyle Tucker against Aaron Nola
Tucker's combination of contact and power fits Citizens Bank Park, especially against a pitcher allowing this much home-run damage. His hits, runs, and RBIs market is the cleaner way to connect him to the game total without needing him to leave the yard.
Atlanta's left-handed bats against Michael King
Michael Harris II and Matt Olson are the first two Braves hitters I would look toward. King's underlying profile is vulnerable, and both hitters can punish mistakes before Atlanta reaches the bottom half of the order.
Toronto contact instead of Jax strikeouts
I would rather back Toronto hitters than play Griffin Jax over 4.5 strikeouts. The Blue Jays have already shown they can reach base against him, and Jax has not projected cleanly enough above that number for me to chase the over.
No props made the official card. These are matchup notes only.
Tonight's Card
| Game | Play | Odds | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| White Sox at Rangers | Rangers F5 ML | -105 | 1.00 |
| Padres at Braves | Over 8.5 | -120 | 1.00 |
| Dodgers at Phillies | Over 9.5 | -120 | 1.00 |
| Marlins at Astros | F5 Under 4.5 | -110 | 1.00 |
| Rays at Blue Jays | Blue Jays ML | -106 | 1.00 |
Total risk: 5.00 units
Five plays. Five units. Two bets on the starters, two bets on the bats, and Toronto to finish the job at home.
Let's get to the window.