The photo is Rafael Devers. The first play is the Giants moneyline.
Skenes gets the ball at PNC Park tonight against a Cubs starter whose home run rate has not traveled well. That matchup is the anchor of the card.
Around it, we have one more moneyline in San Francisco and three strikeout props. Five plays across five different games. No correlated legs and no doubling down on the same matchup.
One housekeeping note before we get into it. Every play tonight is written to win a fixed number of units. The moneylines are each played to win one unit, while the strikeout props are played to win half a unit.
The amount risked changes with the price, so both numbers are listed with every play.
Total exposure: 3.94 units of risk to win 3.50 units.
What I'm Tracking
Strikeouts are the card
Three of the five plays tonight are strikeout overs, and all three have the same basic shape.
Each pitcher is missing bats at a double-digit rate. Each posted number sits below his recent average. None of the three prices is too expensive to play.
Dylan Cease has cleared his number in five of his last seven starts. Hunter Greene has cleared his in six of seven. Nolan McLean comes in at plus money with the best recent floor of the three.
There were other strikeout props worth considering, but these were the three where the number, price and recent form lined up.
Official Plays
Ryan Johnson is the most compromised starter on the board, and it is not particularly close.
He enters with a 6.10 ERA, a 6.23 FIP, 2.3 home runs allowed per nine innings, and fewer than five innings per start across his last seven outings.
Robbie Ray at Oracle Park is the other half of the handicap. He owns a 2.44 home ERA and has allowed fewer than 0.8 home runs per nine in San Francisco. He also gets an Angels team that is 10-18 against left-handed pitching.
Here is the honest caveat. San Francisco is 31-45 against right-handed pitching and just 23-25 at home.
This is not a good team getting backed because we suddenly believe in it. This is a bad team getting backed because the other team is in a worse position tonight.
Cease has produced 13.39 strikeouts per nine innings over his last seven starts. His season strikeout rate is 36.3 percent, backed by a 2.39 FIP.
His strikeout totals during that stretch:
7, 11, 9, 10, 8, 7, 11
He has cleared 7.5 in five of seven starts, with a floor of seven.
Boston also has five regular hitters with strikeout rates above 29 percent. That gives us the matchup side of the play.
The recent strikeout rate is almost identical to his season rate, so this is not about a sudden change the market missed.
It is a distribution play. We are buying a high median and a strong floor at a number sitting a full strikeout below his recent average.
Paul Skenes is the best starting pitcher on tonight's slate.
Shota Imanaga brings a 4.51 FIP and 1.7 home runs allowed per nine innings into PNC Park. He faces a Pittsburgh lineup that leads baseball in home scoring at 5.7 runs per game.
The line has moved toward Pittsburgh throughout the day, but -117 is still playable with Skenes at home.
There is a legitimate counterargument.
Imanaga has pitched extremely well against this specific Pittsburgh roster, while Skenes' recent run-prevention numbers have not matched his reputation.
If the Cubs win this comfortably, the historical matchup against Pittsburgh mattered more than the broader numbers.
At this price, I am still backing the better pitcher at home.
Greene has made three starts since returning from a long layoff and has struck out 26 hitters in 16.1 innings.
That works out to 14.33 strikeouts per nine.
Across his last seven appearances, Greene owns a 12.61 strikeout rate per nine with the following totals:
7, 12, 7, 7, 9, 3, 12
He has cleared 6.5 in six of those seven appearances.
Do not let the 6.06 ERA scare you away from the strikeout prop. Greene has been hurt by a 54.1 percent strand rate and a .324 BABIP. His 3.23 FIP and 2.53 xFIP tell a much different story.
The strikeouts are the signal. The runs have been sequencing.
St. Louis ranks 28th in home scoring at 3.7 runs per game, and we are getting essentially no juice on a prop that has cleared in six of seven.
This is the best price on the card and the best recent floor of the three strikeout props.
McLean has produced 11.63 strikeouts per nine over his last seven starts with the following totals:
10, 7, 5, 7, 9, 9, 6
That gives him a floor of five and a median of seven during the stretch.
His season rate is also strong at 10.72 strikeouts per nine with a 28.8 percent strikeout rate.
The Dodgers are contact-heavy near the top of the order, so this is more of a McLean play than a matchup play.
At plus money on an arm missing bats at this rate, that is enough.
What Didn't Make It
Every full-game total
There simply were not enough games with two vulnerable starting pitchers.
Most of the matchups had at least one starter capable of keeping the game under control, and none offered enough value to force a total onto the card.
The full-game totals were an easy pass.
Paul Skenes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-131)
Skenes was absolutely considered.
The problem is that McLean has the same strikeout line at a price that is 26 cents better, along with a higher recent strikeout rate and a better floor.
The price broke the tie.
Ryan Weathers Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-143 to -162)
Weathers' recent strikeout rate is almost identical to his season rate.
He is also averaging only 4.6 innings per start and has a recent floor of two strikeouts.
That is not enough margin at this price.
Every team total
Milwaukee was the best team-total look on the board.
Colorado's bullpen ranks 25th in ERA, Milwaukee projects as one of the highest-scoring teams tonight, and the park supports offense.
The problem was simple. No team-total line was available to bet.
Boston also deserved a look after going 17-3 over its last 20 games in a park that increases scoring by 13 percent.
The matchup and price movement were enough to keep it off the card. Boston ranks 26th in home scoring, and Toronto's bullpen is not weak enough to ignore.
All offensive props
Cal Raleigh was available at +152 on total bases. Matt Olson and JJ Bleday were available on hits, runs and RBI props.
None made the cut.
Seattle is 9-11 over its last 20 games. Olson faces a starter allowing just 0.64 home runs per nine. Bleday draws a pitcher with a 55.6 percent ground-ball rate.
Pete Alonso was the one offensive look I liked. He faces a starter who has allowed 12 home runs in his last 36 innings.
We never got a playable price.
Tonight's Card
| Play | Odds | Risk | To Win | First Pitch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants ML | -130 | 1.30u | 1.00u | 4:05 ET |
| Dylan Cease Over 7.5 K | -112 | 0.56u | 0.50u | 4:10 ET |
| Pirates ML | -117 | 1.17u | 1.00u | 6:40 ET |
| Hunter Greene Over 6.5 K | -101 | 0.51u | 0.50u | 7:15 ET |
| Nolan McLean Over 6.5 K | +124 | 0.40u | 0.50u | 7:15 ET |
Total: 3.94 units of risk to win 3.50 units
Five plays. Five different games.
Two moneylines built around the starting-pitcher matchup and three arms missing bats at rates their current lines have not caught up to.
Let's get to the window.