Plus Money in Queens

There are twelve games on the board and four official plays across four different matchups. No parlays. No stacking multiple bets into the same game. Every play is sized to win one unit, with the risk changing based on the price.

Atlanta gets Zac Thornton before his 1.93 ERA has a chance to settle into something more realistic. Arizona and Pittsburgh bring two hittable starters into one of the better scoring setups on the board. Cincinnati gets to attack Slade Cecconi inside Great American Ball Park. Miami gets a run and a half in the lowest-totaled game of the night.

Original exposure: 4.32 units risked to win 4.00 units.

What I'm Tracking

Zac Thornton's first four starts

Thornton has allowed five earned runs through his first 23.1 major league innings.

That gives him a 1.93 ERA, but the numbers underneath it look more like a pitcher in the mid-fours.

His batting average on balls in play is .206, which has helped erase a lot of contact. His home run-to-fly-ball rate is 3.7 percent, which has kept almost everything in the park.

Both numbers are sitting well below normal levels, especially for a pitcher who is not overpowering hitters.

Atlanta is also getting its second look at him.

Young pitchers can get through the league the first time because hitters have not seen the release point, movement or sequencing. The second meeting usually comes with fewer surprises.

Pittsburgh's home offense

The Pirates have quietly been the highest-scoring home team in baseball at 5.6 runs per game.

That matters against Merrill Kelly.

Kelly enters with a 5.12 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP and 22 home runs allowed across 103 innings. Over his last seven starts, opponents have slugged .567 against him with a 13.5 percent barrel rate.

That is not a pitcher giving up a few unlucky singles. He is getting hit hard.

Arizona has also been the steadier offense recently, entering 12-8 over its previous twenty games.

Mitch Keller has handled several Diamondbacks well in the past, but his current numbers do not justify treating him like a shutdown starter. His ERA sits at 4.90, and the expected numbers behind it are not offering much reason to expect a quick correction.

Both offenses should have opportunities.

Slade Cecconi in Cincinnati

The Reds team total was the cleanest way to attack Cecconi without needing anything from the other half of the game.

Cecconi entered with a 4.60 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP and a .282 opponent batting average. He was also allowing 1.3 home runs per nine innings while striking out fewer hitters over his recent starts.

That is a dangerous profile inside Great American Ball Park.

The park increases run scoring by roughly eight percent and gives fly balls very little room to die.

The team total also avoided betting against Chase Burns. Burns could have pitched well for Cincinnati and kept Cleveland quiet without affecting our side of the bet.

Weather was the concern from the start, and it eventually won. The game was postponed, so the play will be graded as a void.

The shape of the game in Miami

Zack Wheeler is the best pitcher on Monday's slate.

Miami +1.5 is not about pretending otherwise.

The full-game total is 7.5, the lowest number on the board. The roof is closed at loanDepot park, removing weather from the equation, and the stadium already suppresses scoring.

That creates the type of game where one and a half runs can carry more value.

Miami does not need to beat Wheeler. The Marlins only need to stay within one run in a game the market expects to be played inside a tight scoring window.

The obvious over that stayed off the card

Boston and Oakland had almost everything an over bettor could want.

Boston entered 17-3 over its previous twenty games. Oakland had a struggling starter backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball. The game was being played in the strongest offensive park on the slate with temperatures in the 90s.

The total was also already sitting at 9.5.

That number left less room than the matchup initially suggested. Boston's team total was the cleaner angle, but there was no usable market available.

It looked tempting. It stayed off the card.

The biggest side discrepancy

St. Louis showed the largest raw pricing edge on the board, but the market was moving hard toward Chicago.

The Cubs had 79 percent of the bets and 97 percent of the money at DraftKings. Circa showed the same basic shape, with much more money than tickets landing on Chicago.

The line followed the money.

That did not guarantee a Cubs win, but it created enough disagreement to leave the game alone.

Official Plays

He enters with a 1.93 ERA across 23.1 innings and four career starts. His expected numbers sit between 4.20 and 4.40.

A .206 batting average on balls in play has helped erase a lot of contact. A 3.7 percent home run-to-fly-ball rate has kept almost every fly ball in the park.

Those numbers can survive four starts. They usually do not survive four months.

Atlanta also gets its second look at Thornton after facing him earlier in the season. That matters against a young pitcher still making his first trip through the league.

Martin Pérez has the larger body of work on the other side. He carries a 3.38 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP and a .216 opponent batting average across 85 innings.

He is also left-handed, and New York is 8-20 against left-handed starters this season.

Pérez has not been as sharp lately. His ERA is 4.68 over his last five starts, and the walks have climbed. Citi Field also leans toward pitchers, which gives Thornton a little more room to survive.

The number still favors Atlanta.

The Braves are getting plus money against a pitcher whose early run prevention is being held together by two of the least reliable numbers on the board.

He enters with a 5.12 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP and 22 home runs allowed across 103 innings. Opponents have produced an .855 OPS against him.

The recent contact has been even louder.

Across his last seven starts, hitters have slugged .567 with a 13.5 percent barrel rate and more than two home runs per nine innings.

That is not a bloop-single problem. He is getting squared up.

Keller owns a 4.90 ERA on the other side, and his expected numbers do not suggest he has been dramatically unlucky. Arizona has been the more consistent lineup recently, while Pittsburgh has scored 5.6 runs per game at home.

Kelly has been better over his last five starts specifically, posting a 3.54 ERA during that stretch. The improvement is worth respecting, but the strikeout rate, home run problem and quality of contact still point toward traffic.

The weather also cooperates. Temperatures are in the mid-70s with a light breeze and no serious rain threat.

Two hittable starters should give both offenses enough chances to push this game into double digits.

He entered with a 4.60 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP and a .282 opponent batting average. He had also allowed 1.3 home runs per nine innings.

The recent trend was moving in the wrong direction.

Cecconi carried a 4.80 ERA over his previous five starts, while his strikeout rate had fallen to 6.3 per nine. Fewer strikeouts mean more balls in play, and Great American Ball Park is not where a contact pitcher wants to test his luck.

The team total isolated the matchup we wanted.

Cincinnati only needed to score five runs. Cleveland did not need to contribute, and Chase Burns could have dominated the Guardians without affecting the bet.

Weather was the concern from the beginning, with rain possible around first pitch and humidity above 90 percent.

The game was postponed, and the bet is a void.

He enters with a 2.16 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP and a 30.8 percent strikeout rate. Opponents are hitting .186 against him with a .552 OPS.

Miami +1.5 is not a bet against Wheeler's ability.

It is a bet on the expected shape of the game.

The total is 7.5, the lowest number on the twelve-game board. The roof is closed at loanDepot park, and the building suppresses scoring on its own.

Low-scoring games make every run more valuable. Miami can lose the game and still cash the ticket, and the extra run and a half comes at essentially even money.

Tyler Phillips carries a 3.52 ERA, but his expected marks are closer to 4.70. His strikeout rate has also dropped to four per nine innings over his last five starts.

He is not the pitching edge.

The edge is getting a full run and a half in a game where the market expects runs to be difficult to find.

Miami enters on a ten-game losing streak, which is why the number feels uncomfortable. The Marlins do not need to solve everything that has gone wrong during that stretch.

They need to stay within one run.

The Card

Four plays across four different games. Every play is sized to win one unit.

Every completed play gets graded here, win or lose.