Monday's board is a thin one, and that is fine. The job is to find the spots where the matchup does the work, not to fill out a ticket for the sake of it. Three plays cleared the bar tonight.
Start in Detroit. Gerrit Cole has looked like his old self since coming off the injured list, working around a 2.50 ERA with his strikeout rate climbing back up over his last four starts. The Tigers rank near the bottom of the league at avoiding strikeouts and have struggled to score, sitting under four runs a game this month. Framber Valdez has been far more hittable on the road than at home, and even without Aaron Judge the Yankees lineup has kept producing. We want New York on the moneyline.
The second play is a total. Texas and Miami meet at loanDepot Park, where the roof keeps conditions neutral, and these are two of the quietest offenses in baseball. Tyler Phillips has been excellent at home, both bullpens rank inside the top eight in ERA, and the Rangers have scored just over four runs a game on the road. The under is the side we want.
The third play goes the other way on a total. Out in Anaheim, Kyle Bradish and Sam Aldegheri both walk a lot of hitters and carry WHIPs around 1.50, the kind of profile that produces traffic and crooked innings. Add Baltimore's power and a clear night, and the over at nine has room to get there.
Tonight's Card
Cole is missing bats again and draws a Detroit lineup that strikes out as much as any in the league and has gone quiet at the plate. Valdez has been vulnerable away from home. This is the kind of spot where the better arm controls the game from the first pitch.
Two bottom-tier offenses, a home arm in Tyler Phillips who has been tough to score on in Miami, and two bullpens that both rank near the top of the league in ERA. With the roof keeping the park neutral, runs should be hard to come by.
Two starters who both fight their command, a Baltimore lineup with pop, and a clear night in Anaheim. When both arms are putting runners on for free, the runs tend to follow.
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As always, every play is posted before first pitch and graded publicly, win or lose. Shop for the best number, manage your bankroll, and let the arms do the heavy lifting. Check the today's picks page for the live card.