Three plays on the Saturday slate, and these are the spots I like.
Today's MLB card is thin, and that's intentional.
Holiday weekend slates can be tricky. Everyone wants to bet, the books know it, and the lines get tight. I'm not forcing plays when the value is not there. Three plays tonight. Two unders and a side.
The Plays
This is my strongest play on the board. The total opened at 9.5 and got steamed to 8.5. Grant Holmes has gone under in four of his last five starts for Atlanta. Jake Irvin has a 4.56 ERA on the road, but both lineups have been quiet lately. When the total drops that much and the pitching matchup supports it, I like the under.
Another total that dropped. Kai-Wei Teng and Colin Rea are both efficient right-handers. Neither lineup has been producing much against righties lately. The pitching matchup supports a lower-scoring game, and the line movement backs that up too.
Bryan Hudson starts for Chicago against Adrian Houser. The White Sox have been playing better baseball, and Houser has been hittable. The market sees this closer to a toss-up, but I like Chicago with the better arm.
What Else I'm Watching
TB/NYY got rained out, which takes one of the better F5 under spots off the board. Rasmussen vs. Weathers had one of the lower adjusted F5 totals on the slate.
F5 Spots on the Radar
F5 Unders: SEA/KC with Kirby on the mound and CLE/PHI with Wheeler. Both feel like lower-scoring spots through five innings. Did not play them, but certainly worth watching.
F5 Over: MIN/BOS. Jovani Moran has a 13.50 F5 ERA. If you are looking for early runs, that is the spot.
Baltimore ML. Detroit is still a fade candidate.
Friday Recap
Thunder +2 cashed, 123 to 108, won by 15. Mariners won 2 to 0. deGrom got shelled in Anaheim, 3 IP, 4 HR. Wemby only grabbed 4 rebounds after 24 and 17 in the first two games.
Running: 32-22, +6.16u, 10.5% ROI
What I'm Tracking
Losing streaks everywhere
Three of today's opponents are on rough losing streaks. Detroit is on a 7-game losing streak, 1-9 in their last 10. The Cubs have lost 6 straight, 2-8 in their last 10. The Giants have lost 4 straight, 3-7 in their last 10, with a -57 run differential on the season. When teams are sliding like that, I want to be on the other side.
Pitcher mismatches
Kai-Wei Teng is sitting at a 2.61 ERA with a .198 batting average against. Opponents have a .612 OPS against him. Colin Rea is at a 4.98 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. That gap supports the under in Houston/Chicago. Add in Wrigley weather, cool and damp, and runs could be tougher to come by.
F5 unders are worth watching
The Rays have one of the lowest average F5 run totals in baseball at 4.1 runs through the first five innings. The Giants are at 4.8.
Game totals keep cashing
Since I started tracking by bet type, MLB game totals have been strong. When the pitching matchup lines up and the number makes sense, I like attacking totals.
Discipline over volume
The best bets this week came when I stayed selective. When everything lines up, take it. When they do not, pass.
The record is 32-22, +6.16u, 10.5% ROI.
Three plays today. All MLB. Card is posted.