Memorial Day is one of the better sports holidays of the year. Full MLB slate, conference finals in both the NBA and NHL, and a market that can get inflated when recreational money floods in. Four plays today across three sports, for the Sweep Grind team.
The Plays
This is the strongest data play on the board. Texas has been the best under team in baseball at 29-19-4 and has gone under in 16 of its last 20 home games. Houston has gone under in 7 of its last 10 road games. Kumar Rocker has a 2.81 ERA at home with a .232 batting average against. Both teams are coming off long road trips, and this sets up well for a lower-scoring game.
Two-leg parlay pairing the best pitcher on the slate with a strong NBA spot. Jacob Misiorowski has a 1.89 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 13.9 K/9. He faces Matthew Liberatore, who has a 4.70 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. That is a major pitching gap. On the NBA side, the Knicks had won 10 straight and held a 3-0 series lead. Donovan Mitchell was banged up, Cleveland had struggled with turnovers, and the line opened at 1.5 and moved to 3 in Vegas. Milwaukee at -185 straight was too heavy for me. Pairing it with a strong NBA closeout spot created better value, and after Game 3, it felt like the Cavs were cooked.
Home dog in the Eastern Conference Finals. Bell Centre has been one of the toughest places to play this postseason. Montreal gets back home in a good spot, and plus money is enough for me to back the dog.
This is an advanced metrics play. Luzardo's ERA is 4.85, but his xFIP is 2.68. That gap suggests he has been getting unlucky and positive regression could be coming. More importantly, he has been a completely different pitcher on the road, 1.52 ERA away versus 7.31 at home. San Diego's Vasquez has a solid 2.96 ERA, but Philadelphia is the better team at a fair price. I'll take it.
Weekend Recap
Orioles cashed on Cowser's 3-run HR in the 9th. F5 Under hit easily with Rasmussen and Weathers both dealing. Rays ML lost on a Judge walk-off in the 9th. Good process, one tough beat.
Saturday: 2-1, +0.78u
Both unders cashed clean. Nationals/Braves 2-0. Astros/Cubs 3-0. White Sox lost 3-10, bad read on my end.
Running: 36-24, +7.94u, 12.1% ROI
What I'm Tracking
Game totals continue to be the strongest angle
MLB totals are now 8-1 over the last 3 weeks. When pitching data, trend data, weather, and line movement all line up, that is where the edge is.
Pitching mismatches still matter
The biggest gaps on today's slate:
Misiorowski vs. Liberatore (MIL vs STL): 1.89 ERA vs 4.70 ERA
McClanahan vs. Bradish (TB vs BAL): 2.82 ERA vs 4.13 ERA
Yesavage vs. Junk (TOR vs MIA): 1.07 ERA vs 5.07 ERA
The parlay structure was intentional
Milwaukee at -185 straight was too heavy for me. Pairing it with a strong NBA closeout spot created better value, and after Game 3, it felt like the Cavs were cooked.
xFIP regression remains an edge
Luzardo's ERA vs xFIP gap stands out. Surface stats can scare people off, but underlying metrics often tell a better story.
The Approach
Same approach as Saturday, holiday slates usually bring heavier public money. That can create value in spots where the numbers do not fully line up with market sentiment. That is part of why I liked the under, the home dog, and an advanced metrics based side.
Four plays. All backed by data. Risking 4.26 units total.
The record is 36-24, +7.94u, 12.1% ROI.