Six plays tonight. That's the most I've had on a card since the first week, and there's a reason for that. The data lines up across three sports in a way it usually doesn't. Two conference finals games, two strong MLB pitching matchups, and a companion prop that fits the game script perfectly.
The Plays
Spencer Strider has a 3.0 ERA on the road with a .164 opponent batting average and is 5-0 in away starts. Ranger Suarez has a 2.4 ERA at home with a .213 opponent batting average. This is two aces going head to head. Runs should be hard to come by.
Game totals with elite pitching matchups have been running well, 9-2 in the last 11. As Crash Davis says, "You don't fuck with streaks."
Cam Schlittler has been one of the best pitchers in the American League and now draws Bailey Falter, who has been getting hit consistently. The Yankees are around -200 on the moneyline, which is too heavy for me as a straight play.
The run line at -125 is the better way to approach this. New York has the lineup depth to create separation, and Schlittler should keep the Royals offense quiet.
AJ Mitchell is out. Jalen Williams is questionable and has dealt with hamstring injuries in both legs dating back to the regular season. Even if he plays, I don't think he's close to 100%.
That really thins the Thunder rotation. Wemby attacked the paint in Game 4 with 33 points and 9 free throw attempts after settling for jumpers in Game 3. The Spurs have been competitive in every game this series. Getting under five points with the most talented player on the floor feels like a strong spot.
No team in NHL history has come back from a 3-0 deficit in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Colorado is also dealing with injuries to Nathan McKinnon and Cale Makar.
Mark Stone returned in Game 3 and immediately made an impact with a goal and an assist. Carter Hart has a .942 save percentage in the series, and Colorado has scored just four 5-on-5 goals through three games.
Just like last night with Knicks-Cavs, give me the better team to close out a lifeless bunch in Game 4 for the sweep.
Fox has played 31 minutes in both games since returning from the ankle injury, and his usage has been right where you'd expect it to be. Dylan Harper has cooled off since the Game 2 injury, scoring just 13 total points on 11 shots over the last two games.
That shifts more offensive responsibility onto Fox. With OKC missing Mitchell and likely dealing with a limited Williams, there are fewer defensive options to throw at him.
This is also a companion play to the Spurs spread. If San Antonio stays in this game, Fox is probably a big reason why.
This is the bonus play, and honestly, it might be the best one on the card.
Chase Burns has been the best pitcher in the National League over the last month:
- 1.83 ERA in May
- 25 strikeouts in 25 innings
- 32% career K rate
The Mets active roster ranks dead last in WOBA, ISO, and WRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. Juan Soto is also dealing with an illness and may miss the game.
Yesterday's Results
Monday, May 25: 2-2, +0.48u
The Brewers/Knicks parlay cashed at +163. Brewers won 5-1 and the Knicks completed the sweep 130-93, advancing to the NBA Finals for the first time since 1999.
Phillies ML cashed on a clean shutout. Astros/Rangers Under lost on a brutal beat. Canadiens lost in OT to the Hurricanes.
What I'm Tracking
Game totals are still printing
The Astros/Rangers under loss on Memorial Day was a bad beat. The handicap was right. The result just didn't go our way.
The overall trend with elite pitching matchups is still the strongest angle on the board. Tonight's Strider/Suarez matchup fits the profile perfectly.
OKC's depth problem is getting worse
Mitchell is out. Williams is questionable with recurring hamstring issues. Chet Holmgren has been nearly invisible offensively, averaging 11.6 rebounds but shooting just 47% from the field with five turnovers in the series.
Aaron Wiggins and Jared McCain combined to shoot 3-for-21 and 0-for-9 from three in Game 4.
The Thunder still have depth, but they're running out of guys who can consistently create offense outside of SGA.
Companion props are the right way to play props
Fox over 24.5 PRA only makes sense because we're already on the Spurs spread. If San Antonio covers, Fox is probably heavily involved.
That's the only way I want to play props now. No standalone props that contradict the main side. If I like the Spurs, I want Spurs correlation on the prop card too.
Sounds obvious, but I've learned that lesson the hard way.
Chase Burns is appointment viewing
Four May starts:
- 25 innings
- 12 hits allowed
- 2 earned runs
- 25 strikeouts
- 1.83 ERA
Now he gets a Mets lineup that's dead last against right-handed pitching across nearly every major offensive category.
If Soto misses, this matchup becomes even more lopsided.
I rarely post parlay bonus plays, but this one deserved a spot on the card.
The VGK sweep spot is historic
No team has ever come back from a 0-3 deficit in Stanley Cup Playoff history. Colorado's two best players are banged up, Vegas finally has its full lineup back, and Carter Hart is playing some of the best hockey of his career.
Plus money on the home team in this spot feels like a gift.
The Approach
Six plays is a lot for me. I usually cap it around four. But when the data lines up like this across multiple sports, I'm going to trust it.
Two pitching matchups that favor unders and run lines. Two conference finals games with clear injury edges. A companion prop that fits the game script. And a parlay anchor built around the hottest pitcher in baseball.
Total risk tonight: 6.64 units
Record: 38-26, +8.42u, 12.0% ROI