Three plays tonight across two sports. We like Cleveland getting a full field goal at home, a Browns prop that rides along with it, and a total in a WNBA elimination game that hasn't caught up to the pace of the series.
Browns +3 (-127) vs. Steelers
Thursday, Oct. 1 · Huntington Bank Field · 8:15 p.m. ET · Opened Pittsburgh -2.5 · Bought +3 · 1 unit
Pittsburgh opened -2.5 on Sunday, climbed to -3 by Wednesday, and then came back down. By Thursday afternoon the sharper books were all back at -2.5 even though Pittsburgh still held the majority of tickets. A line moving against the side most people are betting is the signal we trust most. The bigger bets are on Cleveland. We took +3 at 4 PM Central, before the number had a chance to go further.
The matchup supports it. Pittsburgh's offense is 29th in EPA per play and 26th in success rate even after last week's 30 points on Cincinnati. Cleveland's defense has been third-best in the league over the last two weeks by EPA per play allowed. Deshaun Watson has strung together two clean games (four touchdowns, no picks), and the Browns have two home wins against teams that outplayed them on paper.
The Steelers are the better brand. On the field this year, they haven't been the better team by enough to lay three in Cleveland.
And there's the history. Pittsburgh has never won a Thursday night road game against a division opponent: 0-9 all time. Four of those losses came in Cleveland, three of them in the last seven years. The Steelers are 3-16 on the road on Thursdays overall, the worst Thursday road record in the league.
Raheim Sanders Over 11.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Thursday, Oct. 1 · Huntington Bank Field · 8:15 p.m. ET · 0.5 units
This is the companion to the Browns side. If Cleveland keeps the game close, Watson is throwing short against pressure, and the ball goes to the back on third down. Sanders has 25, 7 and 34 receiving yards in three games; the one miss came when Denzel Boston took 95 yards of targets. The line is one catch.
Fever at Aces, Game 3 Over 180.5 (-122)
Thursday, Oct. 1 · Las Vegas · 9 p.m. ET · 1 unit
This is an elimination game, and the series has been nothing but offense. Game 1 in Vegas went 102-85. Game 2 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Tuesday went 99-89, with Caitlin Clark putting up 27 points and 15 assists, the first 25-and-15 playoff game in league history, to force a Game 3. That's 187 and 188 total points, both clearing tonight's number by six or seven. Indiana got here by running, Las Vegas scored 102 in the opener, and neither team has shown any interest in slowing down. The fireworks from Tuesday night should carry over to Vegas. The number hasn't caught up to the pace of this series.
What we passed
The TNF total. The number has sat between 37.5 and 38.5 all week and been pushed both ways. Too crowded to bet.
North Texas at Tulsa. There's a case here. Baylor Hayes, the quarterback who beat Oklahoma State in the opener, is back for Tulsa after missing two games, and North Texas gives up points to anyone with a pulse: Texas State hung 49 on them two weeks ago at 8.5 yards a play, and that's a Texas State team that scored 7 against Texas. We'd be looking at Tulsa, despite the line move towards North Texas, and the over. But the National Weather Service has half an inch of rain and 20 mph gusts through the game, with a chance of a lightning delay, and that takes the edge out of both. Weather keeps us off this one.
Tonight's card
| Play | Odds | Risk | To Win | Start |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns +3 | -127 | 1.27u | 1.00u | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| Raheim Sanders Over 11.5 Rec Yds | -114 | 0.57u | 0.50u | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| Fever/Aces Over 180.5 | -122 | 1.22u | 1.00u | 9 p.m. ET |
Total: 3.06 units of risk to win 2.50 units
Good luck!