Four Dogs, a Favorite and a Half

Six plays today, which is more than usual, but I think this card is really solid. Four underdogs, one favorite and one first half play.

UCF +10.5 at Oklahoma State

Saturday, Oct. 10 · Boone Pickens Stadium · Noon ET · ESPN2

UCF’s defense is the reason for this one. The Knights are allowing 17.6 points a game and 4.8 yards a play, and that includes a 21-13 win over TCU, a 27-17 loss at Houston and a 12-7 loss at Pitt. Their two FBS losses have come by a combined 15 points, and now we’re getting 10.5.

Oklahoma State can score. The Cowboys average 37 a game and 7.1 a play, and they beat Oregon 39-31 at home. But this is the same Oklahoma State team that lost 24-10 at Tulsa as a two-touchdown favorite in Week 1. UCF needs to run the ball, shorten the game and keep Oklahoma State from turning this into a track meet. That’s how they’ve stayed competitive all year. Give me the 10.5.

UCLA +10.5 at Oregon

Saturday, Oct. 10 · Autzen Stadium · 3:30 p.m. ET · CBS

I’ve liked UCLA since August and I still think this team is being underrated. The Bruins are 4-0, averaging 44.8 points a game and 7.4 yards a play, and they’ve run the ball on everybody: 8.7 a carry against Cal, 7.7 against Purdue and 6.8 in the 54-3 win at Maryland.

Oregon’s defense has not been great. The Ducks gave up 39 to Oklahoma State and 27 to both Boise State and USC, and they have a change at quarterback with Dante Moore out and Dylan Raiola getting the start. UCLA is allowing 18.8 points a game and 4.7 a play, so this is not an easy spot for a new quarterback. Oregon is the better program, but I don’t think they’re 11 points better than this UCLA team right now. I think UCLA stays inside the number, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they have a chance to win it late.

Tennessee/Arkansas Over 51.5

Saturday, Oct. 10 · Razorback Stadium · 4:15 p.m. ET · SEC Network

Arkansas hasn’t been able to stop anybody. The Razorbacks allow 28.4 points a game and 5.8 yards a play, and that’s with North Alabama and Tulsa on the schedule. Utah scored 43 on them, Georgia 45 and Texas A&M 34 last week. Tennessee scored 56, 45 and 42 in its first three games before slowing down against Texas and Auburn, and this is a good spot for that offense to get going again.

Arkansas only scored 7 last week, but they put up 34 on Tulsa and 31 on North Alabama, and Tennessee’s defense has given up enough chunk plays that I think Arkansas does its part. Weather looks good in Fayetteville, 80s and very little wind. I’m good with anything around 52.

Oregon State -16.5 vs. San Diego State

Saturday, Oct. 10 · Reser Stadium · 6 p.m. ET · USA Network

This is a big number, but I’m laying it. San Diego State has been brutal offensively against FBS teams: 10 at UCLA, 13 against JMU, 16 at Toledo and 31 against Texas State. Their last two games produced 296 and 239 yards, and they’re averaging 4.8 a play for the season.

Oregon State is trending the other way. The Beavers have scored 52, 33 and 56 in their last three and put up 650 yards last week against Colorado State. They’re averaging 7.3 a play this year. San Diego State’s defense is good enough to keep them around for a while, but eventually they have to score, and I don’t think they score enough to stay inside this number.

Kentucky +8.5 vs. LSU

Saturday, Oct. 10 · Kroger Field · 7 p.m. ET · ESPN

This is probably the play I like the least of the six, but there’s still value getting more than a touchdown at home. LSU is 4-1 and the defense has been excellent, 15.2 points a game and 3.9 yards a play. Kentucky is also 4-1 and has already won two SEC road games, 31-21 at Texas A&M and 35-34 at South Carolina last week. The Wildcats average 34.6 a game and 6.4 a play.

LSU’s only loss came 32-24 at Ole Miss in its only real road test. Now they go to Lexington at night with rain and wind in the forecast. That should slow things down, and that type of game favors the home dog getting 8.5. Kentucky has covered four of five this year. Give me the points.

James Madison 1H -4.5 at Georgia Southern

Saturday, Oct. 10 · Paulson Stadium · 7:30 p.m. ET · ESPNU

You know I like this JMU team. They’re 5-0, averaging 44.8 points a game and allowing 13.2, and they’ve done a good job putting teams away early. Georgia Southern is 2-3 with losses to Clemson, Jacksonville State and Houston, and they gave up 42 to Houston at home.

I’m playing the first half instead of the full game because of the weather. There’s rain and thunderstorms in the forecast throughout the day in Statesboro, and if conditions get worse late, I could see the second half turning into both teams trying to get out of there. I want JMU early, when the talent difference shows up the most. If the weather gets ugly before kickoff with lightning delays or standing water, I’ll stay off it and post an update on X.

Saturday’s card

Total: 6.60 units of risk to win 6.00 units

UCF and UCLA are the two I feel best about. Kentucky is the one I’d cut first if you’re playing fewer. Good luck today.