A Home Dog and the Worst Defense in the Country

Two plays tonight. Taking the points with an Old Dominion team that needs its defense to carry it, and laying two touchdowns against a Colorado State defense that can’t get anyone off the field.

Old Dominion +3.5 (-126) vs. Georgia Southern

Thursday, Oct. 15 · S.B. Ballard Stadium · 7:30 p.m. ET · ESPN2 · Board +3 · Bought +3.5

Old Dominion’s offense has been ugly. The Monarchs averaged 2.4 yards a play against Georgia State two weeks ago and 3.8 against App State last week, and those numbers don’t make anyone want to run to the window.

The defense is why I’m taking the points. ODU held App State to three points and 2.9 yards a play in Boone last week. Winning there is hard enough, and holding them to three is impressive. The Monarchs also held East Carolina to 20 at home.

Georgia Southern nearly beat JMU on Saturday, losing 27-24 as a seven-point home dog while outgaining the Dukes 7.2 yards a play to 5.7. They can move the ball. The question is whether they can come into Norfolk and get enough separation to cover. Three of the Eagles’ last four have been decided by seven or fewer, and they’re 1-2 on the road with the only win at Coastal Carolina. With the total at 45.5, points will be hard to come by, and more than a field goal is worth a look.

I paid -126 for the half point. More juice than I like, but a three-point Georgia Southern win wouldn’t surprise me, and I want the hook.

Texas State -14 (-120) vs. Colorado State

Thursday, Oct. 15 · UFCU Stadium · 8 p.m. ET · CBS Sports Network · Board -14.5 · Bought -14

Colorado State is allowing 7.78 yards a play, dead last of 138 FBS teams. The Rams gave up 41 to BYU, 59 to UTSA and 56 to Oregon State in their last three against FBS opponents. It got bad enough against Oregon State that Jim Mora fired defensive coordinator Tyson Summers during the game.

They’ve had a bye to work on it, but one week and a different play caller doesn’t fix a defense playing this poorly.

Now they get a Texas State offense averaging 6.78 yards a play. Brad Jackson threw for 372 last time out against San Diego State, and the Bobcats put up 49 on North Texas and 63 on Incarnate Word at home. Yes, Incarnate Word, but this offense can score. Both teams have played UTSA. Texas State lost by five at home, and Colorado State lost by 14 on the road while allowing 59. One common opponent, but it tells you what Texas State should be able to do tonight.

I don’t lay two touchdowns often, but Colorado State hasn’t shown it can get a stop and Texas State has the offense to make it another long night. I got -14 at -120, which matters because a two-touchdown win pushes instead of losing at -14.5.

Thursday’s card

Total: 2.46 units of risk to win 2.00 units

Good luck tonight!