Friday night went 1-0. Northwestern +3 cashed and we're up 1.50 units on the week heading into Saturday.
Three college plays today. Two dogs getting points against Big Ten and SEC favorites that haven't earned the number, and one first half from the fastest-starting team we've seen this season.
Mississippi State +5.5 (-112) vs. Alabama
Saturday, Oct. 3 · Davis Wade Stadium · Noon ET · Bought +5.5
Mississippi State is 4-0 against the spread, and Kamario Taylor is playing like a Heisman candidate: almost 70% completions, 298 yards a game, 14 touchdowns and two interceptions. The Bulldogs have averaged at least 8.6 net yards per attempt in every game, including 10.3 in a 38-13 win at Minnesota. Alabama's pass defense is where to attack. Florida State threw for 11.8 an attempt and scored 36 on it two weeks ago. Alabama has won 16 straight in this series, but this is the best Mississippi State team it has seen in years, at home, in front of a record cowbell crowd, at 11 a.m. local for a team that bused in that morning. We make Alabama about a field goal better. We're getting five and a half.
Minnesota +6.5 (-117) vs. Michigan
Saturday, Oct. 3 · Huntington Bank Stadium · Noon ET · Bought +6.5
The total is 43, and Michigan hasn't shown it can beat a real team by a touchdown. The Wolverines scored 13 against Western Michigan, 17 against Oklahoma and 19 in the loss to Iowa. They rank 107th in total offense and 118th in red zone scoring, and they're minus three in turnovers. The defense is good, sixth in the country in yards allowed, so this won't be a shootout. That's the point. Minnesota holds the ball 34 minutes a game, eighth in the country, allows 28% on third down and just won at Washington as a 12.5-point underdog. Our number has Michigan by a little over two. In a low-scoring game at home, six and a half is a lot of points.
James Madison 1H -10.5 (-107) vs. Marshall
Saturday, Oct. 3 · Bridgeforth Stadium · 3:45 p.m. ET · Bought -10.5
James Madison starts fast. The Dukes led Wagner 42-3, San Diego State 19-0 and Old Dominion 30-17 at halftime, and they've covered every game this season. Marshall's defense is the worst one on that list. Gardner-Webb, an FCS team, put up 458 yards and 35 points on it last week, and Missouri State went for 506 the week before. JMU has won each of its last three first halves by at least 13. Taking the half keeps us out of the fourth quarter, when a 20-point lead brings in the backups.
Saturday's card
| Play | Odds | Risk | To Win | Kick |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi State +5.5 | -112 | 1.12u | 1.00u | Noon ET |
| Minnesota +6.5 | -117 | 1.17u | 1.00u | Noon ET |
| James Madison 1H -10.5 | -107 | 1.07u | 1.00u | 3:45 p.m. ET |
Total: 3.36 units of risk to win 3.00 units
Good luck!