← Back to Blog
CFB·October 6, 2026

One Back Against the Worst Run Defense in the Country

By C_Boogie33·Sweeps grinder and sports bettor··2 min read
Tuesday, October 6, 2026 2 min read
Troy running back Gavin Griffin carries the ball through a pile of tacklers
Gavin Griffin

Monday was the kind of night you want. 4-0, plus 2.50 units. Atlanta won outright 45-24 and never needed the two points, Bijan ran for 145, and Drake London with 96 and Chris Olave with 116 both got there.

One play tonight, on the Tuesday night Sun Belt game.

Gavin Griffin Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-118)

Tuesday, Oct. 6 · Veterans Memorial Stadium · 8 p.m. ET · Southern Miss at Troy

Southern Miss can't stop the run. The Golden Eagles give up 235 rushing yards a game, 137th of 138 FBS teams, and every FBS team they've played has gone over 200 on them: Auburn 343, UConn 213, Tulane 281. Troy is a 10-point home favorite against a Southern Miss team starting its backup quarterback, which means a lot of second-half carries. Gavin Griffin gets 10 to 17 of them a game. Fourteen carries at five yards each gets us there, and five a carry is a slow night against this front.

Tulane running back Maurice Turner breaks away from a Southern Miss defender
Maurice Turner vs. Southern Miss, Sept. 26

That's Turner above, breaking a Southern Miss tackle on his way to the end zone. The defender gets a hand on him and that's about all. Turner's 74-yard run put Tulane ahead for good with 5:26 left, and he finished with 200 yards on 12 carries.

The split is the risk. Jaheim Merriweather had 127 on 13 carries against Alabama State and will get his share, and Troy has scored 17 and 10 in its last two. That's the half unit. But Griffin doesn't have to be good tonight. He has to be on the field.

Tuesday's card

PlayOddsRiskTo WinKick
Gavin Griffin Over 68.5 Rushing Yards-1180.59u0.50u8 p.m. ET

Total: 0.59 units of risk to win 0.50 units

Want our plays emailed to you? Sign up free below.

Free picks and weekly recaps, in your inbox.

Every card we play, emailed before game time, plus a recap of every CFB and NFL game each week. Every result tracked, wins and losses. Free, unsubscribe anytime.

Overall: 154-126-2, +17.19 units

TODAY'S PICKSMORE POSTS