Tuesday got there, but it made us work for it. Troy ran for 437 yards as a team and beat Southern Miss 55-34, but Gavin Griffin still needed a late touchdown drive to get over his number. He finished with 78 yards on 15 carries with a long of 12. 1-0 on the night and another half unit in the bank.
Two plays tonight, both from the Wednesday night Conference USA game.
Jacksonville State -2.5 (-125) at Kennesaw State
Wednesday, Oct. 7 · Fifth Third Stadium · 7 p.m. ET · Board -3 · Bought -2.5
Kennesaw State has scored 40 points in three games against FBS teams, 17 against Georgia State, 9 at Tennessee and 14 at Arkansas State. The Owls are 1-3 and the only win came 47-0 over West Georgia, an FCS team.
Jacksonville State is 3-2 and I'm not worried about the losses. They lost at North Dakota State in the opener and by two at Ohio, and since then they've beaten Georgia Southern and Middle Tennessee. Caden Creel has been a big reason why. He ran for 120 yards at Ohio and 119 against Middle Tennessee, and he threw five touchdowns against Eastern Kentucky.
Jacksonville State has the better quarterback and the better team, and the matchup on the ground is in its favor. Kennesaw is allowing 206 rushing yards a game to FBS teams, including 268 to Tennessee. I bought the hook and took -2.5.
Boogie Woods Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Wednesday, Oct. 7 · Fifth Third Stadium · 7 p.m. ET · Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State
Jacksonville State has had trouble stopping the run. The Gamecocks allow 171 rushing yards a game, 109th in the country, and every team they've played has had a runner reach at least 67 yards. The last two went over 100: Georgia Southern's David Mbadinga had 103 on 18 carries and Middle Tennessee's Antonio Martin had 106 on 17.
The key with Woods is the game staying close. He had 19 carries for 101 yards and two touchdowns in the three-point loss at Arkansas State, and in the games that got away from Kennesaw his workload dropped. Tonight's spread is under a field goal, so I expect him to stay involved. If he gets around 18 carries again, I like his chances.
Half a unit because there's some risk Jacksonville State gets up big early and Woods loses carries. Both plays can get there. Jacksonville State wins the game and Woods still gets enough work to clear the number.
Wednesday's card
| Play | Odds | Risk | To Win | Kick |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville State -2.5 | -125 | 1.25u | 1.00u | 7 p.m. ET |
| Boogie Woods Over 54.5 Rushing Yards | -115 | 0.58u | 0.50u | 7 p.m. ET |
Total: 1.83 units of risk to win 1.50 units
Good luck!