Thursday Night Football and Arkansas State on the Moneyline

Tough break on Jacksonville State last night. They had the ball inside the Kennesaw State 40 twice with under eight minutes left and couldn’t put points on the board, then won 27-26 on a field goal with 52 seconds to go. Right result, wrong margin. Boogie Woods finished with 37 yards on eight carries and looked like he was in the doghouse for whatever reason. It’s hard to figure out what these Sun Belt coaches are thinking sometimes. 0-2, minus 1.83.

Two plays tonight, one in college and one in the NFL.

Arkansas State ML (-148) vs. South Alabama

Thursday, Oct. 8 · Centennial Bank Stadium · 7:30 p.m. ET · ESPN2

I’ll start by saying I don’t love laying -148. I usually stay away from that much juice because it adds up over a season. But I think Arkansas State wins this game, and with the spread sitting at 3, I’d rather take the moneyline than sweat a push.

South Alabama’s defense has been awful. The Jaguars allow 7.22 yards a play, and only Colorado State gives up more among FBS teams. It’s been worse on the road. Tulane averaged 8.3 a play in a 28-24 win, and Kentucky put up 567 yards and 45 points at the same 8.3. South Alabama is 3-2, but all three wins came at home, one against an FCS team, and tonight they’re missing three receivers and a tight end.

Arkansas State is 2-3, but all three losses came on the road against Memphis, TCU and Louisiana, and the Louisiana one was by 3. At home they’re 2-0 and held Kennesaw State to 5.3 a play. Trey Owens threw four interceptions against Memphis in the opener. Since then he’s gone 103 attempts without another one.

I like Arkansas State at home against a team that hasn’t won on the road and can’t stop anybody.

Cade Otton Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Thursday, Oct. 8 · AT&T Stadium · 8:15 p.m. ET · Prime Video

Otton has cleared 29.5 in three of four games this season: 38 against Cleveland, 56 against Minnesota, 37 against Green Bay. The miss was 26 against Cincinnati. He’s getting there on three to five catches most nights, which is what I want at a number this low.

Dallas gives up 6.46 yards a play, the most in the NFL, and 28 points a game. Tampa Bay is a 9-point underdog, so there’s a good chance the Bucs are throwing from behind in the second half, and that means short stuff underneath where Otton lives. I don’t need a big game from him. A handful of catches against a defense that’s been giving up yards all season gets it done.

Thursday’s card

Total: 2.77 units of risk to win 2.00 units

Let’s get back on track tonight. Good luck!