We went 3-0 Thursday night and are back with five for Saturday. Let's get into it.
Virginia Tech/Boston College Under 47.5 (-126)
Saturday, Sept. 26 · Alumni Stadium · Noon ET · Opened 54 · Bought 47.5
The weather in Chestnut Hill looks ugly, heavy rain and strong wind, but I liked this under before the forecast came in. Virginia Tech's defense leads the country in havoc, line yards and opponent rush success rate, and Boston College wants to run the football, which is exactly where this defense has been at its best. The total opened around 54 and has been getting hit down all week. We got 47.5 and I still think there's room.
Sam Houston +33.5 (+101) at Texas Tech
Saturday, Sept. 26 · Galaxy Stadium · Noon ET · Opened Texas Tech -38 · Bought +33.5
Sam Houston is 0-3 and a lot more competitive than that looks. They lost by three at Troy and by six to Tulsa, covering both as big dogs, and the defense has been one of the better units in the country at limiting explosive plays, which is what I want when we're getting more than five touchdowns. Texas Tech hasn't been blowing anyone away either. Oregon State threw for 413 on them and the Red Raiders just survived Houston by two. This opened around 38 and has been moving our way. I'll take 33.5 at plus money.
UCLA ML (-121) at Maryland
Saturday, Sept. 26 · SECU Stadium · 1:30 p.m. ET
This is the one people are going to question. The public is on UCLA and the market has moved toward Maryland, and normally that's something I pay attention to. I'm still taking the Bruins. Maryland is coming off a loss to Virginia Tech, and Mike Locksley came into the season already under pressure after back-to-back 4-8 years. UCLA has been a different team under Bob Chesney: 3-0 straight up and against the spread, averaging 41.7 a game after managing 14.3 during last year's 0-4 start. I'm not laying points.
Western Michigan +7.5 (-114) vs. Boise State
Saturday, Sept. 26 · Waldo Stadium · 3:30 p.m. ET · Opened Boise -8 · Bought +7.5
I wanted the hook here and we got it. Boise opened around -8 and the early money came in on Western Michigan at +8 and +7.5. The Broncos are allowing 16 a game, and Broc Lowry gives them another dimension with his legs. I think Western Michigan is good enough defensively to keep this close, and more than a touchdown at home is the side I want.
Florida -2.5 (-138) vs. Ole Miss
Saturday, Sept. 26 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · 3:30 p.m. ET · Bought -2.5
Ole Miss is coming off its biggest win of the season over Lane Kiffin and LSU, and now the Rebels are one of the most popular dogs on the board. The sharper money has gone the other way. Kewan Lacy is doubtful, which is a big loss against a Florida team that just ran for 243 at Auburn, and Jadan Baugh, with 458 yards and eight touchdowns already, gets an Ole Miss defense allowing 159 rushing a game. We paid the extra juice for -2.5 instead of 3. If Florida wins by a field goal, I want to cash the ticket.
Saturday's card
| Play | Odds | Risk | To Win | Kick |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Tech/Boston College Under 47.5 | -126 | 1.26u | 1.00u | Noon ET |
| Sam Houston +33.5 at Texas Tech | +101 | 1.00u | 1.01u | Noon ET |
| UCLA ML at Maryland | -121 | 1.21u | 1.00u | 1:30 p.m. ET |
| Western Michigan +7.5 vs. Boise State | -114 | 1.14u | 1.00u | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| Florida -2.5 vs. Ole Miss | -138 | 1.38u | 1.00u | 3:30 p.m. ET |
Favorites risk to win one unit. Underdogs risk one unit.
Total: 5.99 units of risk to win 5.01 units
We may add something later if another number gets where we want it. Anything added goes up on @C_Boogie33 before kickoff. Good luck today.
21+. Please bet responsibly.