Two Plays and a Parlay for Week 3

We're 146-116-2, +19.91 units on the season heading into Sunday. We started with more than a dozen candidates and cut most of them. Every play here has at least two independent reasons behind it, whether that's the number, the matchup or where the money is going. Anything that only had a crowd behind it got cut.

Bengals/Steelers Under 42.5 (-107)

Sunday, Sept. 27 · Acrisure Stadium · 1 p.m. ET · Opened 46 · Bought 42.5

This total opened at 46 and has been falling all week for good reason. Pittsburgh's offense ranks 31st in success rate, and it isn't bad luck; the Steelers can't stay on schedule. Cincinnati's defense has been one of the best in the league by EPA per play through two weeks, and the Bengals' offense hasn't been much better than Pittsburgh's at 5.1 yards a play against a tough early schedule. Add 20 mph wind at Acrisure and you get two teams that want to run the ball and punt. A 20-16 game is the most likely script, and it clears comfortably.

Buccaneers +1.5 (-114) vs. Vikings

Sunday, Sept. 27 · Raymond James Stadium · 4:05 p.m. ET · Opened Minnesota -2.5 · Bought +1.5

Minnesota is 2-0, but the Vikings have been outgained in both games and rank last in the league in total offense at 242.5 yards a game. Kyler Murray returns, but he lasted two series in the opener before the concussion, so this is his first real start for Minnesota, and he won't have a run game with Aaron Jones hurt and Jordan Mason on IR. Tampa is 0-2, but the Bucs lost four fumbles in the opener and blew a 16-6 lead last week. That's a team underperforming its talent. The market agrees: the line has come down from -2.5, and 73% of the money at DraftKings is on Tampa from 47% of the tickets. Minnesota is also 1-7 in its last eight trips to Tampa.

Ravens ML / Saints ML Parlay (+147)

Ravens vs. Cowboys · Maracanã Stadium, Rio de Janeiro · 4:25 p.m. ET
Saints vs. Raiders · 4:25 p.m. ET

Baltimore's loss to New Orleans last week is the most misleading result on the schedule. The Ravens won the success-rate battle 64% to 44%, and every predictive measure had them winning comfortably. Through two games they've outgained opponents 7.0 to 4.7 yards a play, the best margin in the league. Now they get Dallas on a neutral field in Rio, and favorites in international games are 33-12-4 against the spread.

We're pairing them with the Saints, who get a break in the schedule after opening against Detroit and Baltimore. The Raiders are 2-0, but they beat Miami and a Chargers team that has now lost twice as a big favorite, and they were outgained both times. Las Vegas ranks 22nd in EPA per play and 25th in success rate, and the defensive numbers are inflated by the offenses it has faced. Instead of laying points with two short favorites, we're asking both to win. At +147 the parlay pays better than either spread and takes the field goal risk off both games.

What we passed

The Jaguars are the most crowded public side of the week and the line moved against the crowd. Dolphins +9.5 lost its value when the number dropped from 11.5. And the Steelers side, where we'd rather bet the under than Pittsburgh's offense. We'll grade everything tonight, including the passes.

Sunday's card

Total: 3.21 units of risk to win 3.47 units

Good luck!