Fading Sun Belt Billy

"Scared money don't make money."

Sun Belt Billy Napier, back when he was coaching the Ragin' Cajuns at Louisiana

Ain't that the truth, Billy.

Friday went 1-1. San Jose State won outright at Eastern Michigan and Luke Weaver did what we said he would. The Toledo under was sitting on 47 with two minutes left and lost to a 51-yard field goal. That's the job some nights. The other lesson from East Lansing is that Pat Fitzgerald's rebuilt defense wasn't what we expected against a MAC opponent. Toledo averaged 6.7 yards a play with a 71-yard touchdown run and a 60-yard touchdown catch, and a top-30 unit on paper doesn't give those up to a first-year FBS quarterback. We're 2-1 on the week, and the full board is here.

Six tickets today, and the one we like most is a fade. Billy Napier lasted seven games into his fourth season at Florida. Now he's in Harrisonburg, hired after Bob Chesney left for UCLA, with a new staff, a roster that lost its quarterback and its best back, and a market that still prices James Madison like the team that won the Sun Belt. We're on the other side of that at 6.5. The rest are half units for a reason.

Liberty +6.5 (-112) at James Madison

Saturday, Sept. 5 · Bridgeforth Stadium · Noon ET · Board JMU -6 · Bought at +6.5 on Bet105

This is the best bet on the card, and it comes down to what we think is a coaching edge for Liberty.

Liberty is Jamey Chadwell's fourth team, Newland Isaac has run the offense all four years, and the line is built around Aaron Fenimore, a two-year starter at center. The skill players are new but productive: Rashawn Cunningham had 628 yards and seven scores at the FCS level, and Justin Marshall was a real back at Colorado State. Deshawn Purdie won the quarterback job this week. He's a game manager, and that's fine, because Liberty brings back 64% of its offensive production and the plan is to run and shorten the game.

James Madison has the better roster on paper and almost nothing else going for it today. New head coach, new coordinators on both sides, 27% of last year's offensive production back. Wayne Knight, the best back in the Sun Belt, went to UCLA with Chesney. Alonza Barnett, the quarterback, went to UCF. Camden Coleman starts after a year at Richmond, and eight starters have never played an FBS snap. That's three new systems and a first-time starter in one afternoon against a team that has run the same offense for four years. Some sharp guys we respect are on JMU here, and we know it. We get 6.5 in a game we think stays inside a touchdown. Below +6 we'd pass.

Arkansas State +11.5 (-104) at Memphis

Saturday, Sept. 5 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · 7 p.m. ET · Board Memphis -10.5 · Bought at +11.5 on Kalshi

Memphis beat UNLV last week and is laying 11.5 with one returning starter on each side of the ball. Charles Huff brought 20 transfers and a Division II quarterback in Marcus Stokes who has no FBS snaps, and both coordinators are new. The defense is legitimate, with J'Mond Tapp (7.5 sacks at Southern Miss) leading a front that got six sacks last week.

Arkansas State is built the other way. Ten of 11 offensive starters return, including first-team all-conference receiver Chauncy Cobb and Tristian Smith, the best lineman on either roster. Garrett Altman comes from Vanderbilt to call plays with the ball-control concepts Vandy ran with Diego Pavia. Arkansas State has a game of film on Memphis. Memphis has none on Altman. Devin Spencer is out with a knee and the quarterback wasn't named as of this morning, so the offense will be simpler than it wants to be. These rosters grade about even. The market has them a touchdown and a half apart because one of them won on national TV last week, and Memphis has Boise State next. We'll take the points.

Houston -20.5 (-113) vs. Oregon State

Saturday, Sept. 5 · TDECU Stadium · Noon ET · Opened Houston -18.5 · Board -20.5 · Bought at -20.5 on Kalshi

The biggest roster gap on the Saturday board, and the market moved two points toward it anyway.

Willie Fritz is in year three with the deepest team he's had. Conner Weigman threw for 2,705 yards and 25 touchdowns and ran for 703, Amare Thomas was first-team All-Big 12, and the second receiver is Trent Walker, who led Oregon State in catches last year and now plays against his old team. The offensive line was rebuilt with three all-conference transfers, and this is the third most experienced roster in the FBS.

Oregon State went 2-10, fired Trent Bray, and hired JaMarcus Shephard with a new coordinator on each side. Braden Atkinson was the right choice at quarterback after 3,611 yards and 34 touchdowns at Mercer, but he's making his first FBS start on the road behind a line with one returning starter graded above C-minus, and the offense ranks 122nd in the country. Houston is missing two pass catchers, which is the only reason the ceiling is 21. Last year Houston was favored by 11.5 in Corvallis and won by three, and we remember it. This isn't that Oregon State team. Something like 38-10.

FAU +26.5 (-115) at Florida

Saturday, Sept. 5 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · 7:45 p.m. ET · Opened Florida -25.5 · Board -26.5 · Bought at +26.5 on BetOnline

Florida is better than FAU by a lot. We just need it to be by less than four touchdowns in Jon Sumrall's first game.

Sumrall's defense, run by Brad White from Kentucky, is 17th in the country. Jadan Baugh is an elite back and Bryce Thornton is one of the best safeties in the SEC. The problem is the other side. DJ Lagway is at Baylor, Aaron Philo won the job with 373 career passing yards, Buster Faulkner is installing a new offense, and both tackles graded poorly last year. Last year's Florida offense was 91st in yards per play. This one is new.

FAU can throw, and that's what matters late in a game like this. Caden Veltkamp threw for 3,652 yards, Easton Messer caught 100 balls, and Zach Kittley's offense led the country in passing. FAU's defense allowed 36 a game, so Florida will score. But the Owls went 7-5 against the spread last year at minus-21 in turnover margin and covered at Tulane, Navy and ULM as big dogs, because Kittley keeps throwing against second and third units in the fourth quarter. That's the bet. Half a unit, because the FAU defense makes 45 possible.

Ohio at Nebraska Under 47 (-110)

Saturday, Sept. 5 · Memorial Stadium · Noon ET · Opened 47.5 · Board 46.5 · Bought at 47 on BetOnline

One offense that shouldn't score and one that doesn't need to.

Ohio lost 82% of its offensive production, has a first-time head coach in John Hauser, and starts Nick Poulos at quarterback with 19 career passing yards. The offense ranks 132nd in the country. The defense is the better unit, with two linebackers who graded out well last year and a new coordinator in Kurt Mattix from Charlotte.

Nebraska has the roster to win by 30. Anthony Colandrea threw for 3,459 yards at UNLV and Dana Holgorsen is one of the best play callers in the sport. But the running back job is a rotation, right tackle is a live competition, and last year's offense ranked 134th in explosiveness. Rob Aurich's defense is up from 82nd to 38th, which is why the number is 47 and not 52. The shape is 31-10 with a lot of clock. Nebraska scoring 40 by itself is how it loses.

Sam Houston at Troy Over 53.5 (-115)

Saturday, Sept. 5 · Veterans Memorial Stadium · 7 p.m. ET · Opened 50.5 · Board 54 · Bought at 53.5 on BetOnline

Two of the worst defenses in the country. Troy returns 32% of its defensive production, and Sam Houston's defense ranked 128th in roster value last August and is 128th again.

Troy's half is the easy half: Goose Crowder threw 11 touchdowns against five picks in limited work, and he gets a defense that's thin on the edge and young everywhere. Sam Houston has to do its share, and that's where the risk is. Landyn Locke is healthy in year two of Phil Longo's tempo offense, Alton McCaskill is back, and Josiah Chenault, first-team All-CUSA at Kennesaw State, anchors a line that needed one. The one player who can end this over is Troy edge Donnie Smith, who had 11 sacks last year. If Sam Houston blocks him this is a 34-24 game. If it can't, Locke spends the night on his back. Half a unit, and 53.5 or nothing.

What we passed

Pitt -16.5 has the roster edge over Miami of Ohio but the number never moved, so it stays a lean. Iowa -31.5 is a great team laying too many. Marshall was a play at +24.5 and the board is 23.5. Oklahoma State at Tulsa is two sharp reads fighting each other and we'd rather watch. UCLA moved from a pick to -2.5 and we lost the price.

Saturday's card

Total: 5.00 units of risk to win 4.50 units

Result: 0-6, -5.00u. Liberty lost by exactly seven, Houston won by 13, Nebraska and Ohio combined for 70, Memphis won by 18, Troy and Sam Houston scored 45, and Florida won by 45.

Best of luck to everyone in Week 1!