Colorado cashed outright last night, 14-13, and it landed close to how we drew it up. Georgia Tech ran for 51 yards. Justice Haynes got 64 of them on 19 carries, and the run game we bet against never showed up. Colorado ran for 183 and didn't turn it over, and after a rough night, Julian Lewis put together a game winning drive when it mattered. One bet Thursday, one winner.
Friday we have two. Both involve a MAC team, and both were bought at numbers better than the board.
Toledo at Michigan State Under 49.5 (-127)
Friday, Sept. 4 · Spartan Stadium · 8 p.m. ET · Opened 49.5 · Board 48.5 · Bought at 49.5 on Bet105
This is the lead play, and it starts with two offenses we don't trust to get to 25 apiece.
Michigan State's strength is a defense rebuilt through the portal. Eight of the 11 projected starters are transfers who produced where they came from, and they line up next to Jordan Hall, who led the team with 88 tackles and is the best player on the roster. On paper that's a top-30 unit, and it's why the Spartans are favored by double digits.
The offense is the under's best friend. Pat Fitzgerald is in his first season in East Lansing, and his teams have always been built the same way: defense, field position, run the ball, don't turn it over. Nick Sheridan arrives from Alabama to install a new system in a season opener. Alessio Milivojevic is the quarterback. He threw for 1,267 yards and 10 touchdowns filling in for Aidan Chiles last year, and he plays like a game manager: protects the ball, takes the short throw, doesn't force anything. Cam Edwards, the UConn transfer, is the back the offense will lean on. None of it changes what Fitzgerald wants to do, which is keep the clock moving.
Toledo is a program starting over. Mike Jacobs is a first-year FBS head coach with new coordinators on both sides, and the roster he inherited lost its quarterback, two NFL defensive backs and its best lineman. Ten of 11 projected defensive starters are transfers, most of them up from the FCS level where Jacobs coached, and a green defense on the road is where tackling gets sloppy. That's the one path to points we have to respect. The offense is where the under lives. John Alan Richter takes over at quarterback with 56 career snaps, the skill players are FCS transfers too, and the offensive line is the worry: left tackle Stephen Gales was near the bottom of the position each of the last two years, and the center is another FCS transfer. A road opener in a Big Ten stadium behind that line is a hard place to learn a new system. Toledo will run it, shorten the game and try to hang around, which is a script that produces punts, not points.
The total opened 49.5 and has been bet to 48.5 at most books, with more than 90% of the money on the under against roughly half the tickets. When money and tickets split that hard, the bigger bets are on the under. Bet105 still had 49.5 at -127, so that's where we bought it. 49 at -119 is close to the same bet. 48.5 is a full point worse.
Not everyone we track agrees. There is some sharp action on the over at 47, and a couple of projections sit right on the number. That's why this is one unit and not more. Something like 27-17 is the shape we expect.
San Jose State +3 (-124) at Eastern Michigan
Friday, Sept. 4 · Rynearson Stadium · 6:30 p.m. ET · Opened EMU -4.5 · Board EMU -2.5 · Bought at +3 on Bet105
We wanted San Jose State this week, and the number we wanted was the field goal.
Luke Weaver is the reason. We wrote after Week 0 that he was the surprise of the weekend, and nothing since has changed our mind. Against USC he went 21 of 32 for 234 yards and two touchdowns without a turnover, and the Spartans put up 336 yards at six a play on a top-25 defense. The offense looked organized, the protection held, and Weaver took what was there instead of forcing it. We had treated the former Hawaii backup as a placeholder in August. He didn't play like one, and the market has spent the week catching up. Our full take on that game is in the Week 0 review.
Eastern Michigan's case is continuity. Ten of 11 defensive starters are back, Noah Kim is settled at quarterback after 2,817 yards and 18 touchdowns, and his two best targets return. That two-deep beat Sacramento State by 11 last week. The crack is the offensive line, where Chris Creighton is starting two linemen with zero FBS snaps between them on the right side. Kim threw 11 interceptions last year behind a better line than this one.
San Jose State is the opposite shape: one of the youngest rosters in the country, a defense that projects near the bottom of FBS, and a portal exodus that cost real pieces. That's why we're not on the moneyline, and it's why Eastern Michigan is going to score. What the Spartans have is a quarterback who turned out to be the answer, a coordinator in Craig Stutzmann whose offense looked organized against USC, and a head coach in Ken Niumatalolo who has been an underdog most of his career and knows how to keep a game inside a score. The roster is thin, but it can score on a MAC defense, and that's all a +3 ticket needs.
Eastern Michigan opened -4.5. By Friday afternoon it was -2.5 at most books, with 60% of the money on San Jose State. We found the 3 at Bet105 for -124, a half point better than the board. This is a half-unit play; the roster edge belongs to Eastern Michigan, and the price reflects it. BetOnline has +3.5 at -148 if you'd rather pay for the hook. What doesn't work is +2.5 at any price. The number is 3.
The rest of the board
We looked at all eight Friday games. Toledo +10 has real money behind it, but the number already moved two points and the rosters say Michigan State, so we passed the side and kept the total. Stanford was getting quiet money at +25 against Miami, and we passed on the offensive line before word came out on Twitter that three starting linemen are out tonight. That's the same Stanford team that gave up 20 unanswered to Hawaii last week with a healthy line. We're tempted by Miami, but laying 25 on the road is rarely a spot with much edge, so it stays a lean and not a play. Fresno State moved two points toward the dog at USC, and the over there is a public bet we want no part of. Nothing else got close.
Tonight's card
| Play | Odds | Risk | To Win | Kick |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo/Michigan State Under 49.5 (Bet105) | -127 | 1.27u | 1.00u | 8 p.m. ET |
| San Jose State +3 (Bet105) | -124 | 0.62u | 0.50u | 6:30 p.m. ET |
Total: 1.89 units of risk to win 1.50 units
Result: 1-1, -0.77u. San Jose State won outright 27-21 (cover). Michigan State 30, Toledo 20, 50 points, under 49.5 lost on a 51-yard field goal at the end.
The under played exactly as drawn up for 59 minutes: Michigan State held the ball for 43 of them, Toledo went 1 of 8 on third down, and the Spartans were running out the clock on 3rd and 3 when the back fell down short of the sticks. Instead of kneeling it out, Fitzgerald sent Boyd on for a 51-yarder that landed the game on 50. Weaver went 23 of 39 for 316 and three scores.
Let's get to the window!