ByC_Boogie33·Sweeps grinder and sports bettor··8 min read
Tyler Bass
Every Week 5 game is below with the numbers that decided it: yards per play, third downs, turnovers, the closing line and how it graded, plus a short read on what actually happened. Yards per rush excludes sacks.
All 32 teams are ranked under the Team table tab, with strength of schedule played and left, a projected final record and a luck index. Tap any column there to sort.
Free picks and weekly recaps, in your inbox.
Every card we play, emailed before game time, plus a recap of every CFB and NFL game each week. Every result tracked, wins and losses. Free, unsubscribe anytime.
Tampa Bay caught 8.5 on Thursday night and won the game outright, 24-16. Bucky Irving ran for 165 on 21 carries (a 72-yarder in there) and the Bucs put up 17 straight in the third quarter to turn 7-10 into 24-10. Dallas actually won yards per play, 6.7 to 6.5, and Dak threw for 316 with George Pickens going 9 for 130. The three Dallas giveaways to zero for Tampa are the whole game. Pickens scored with 5:26 left and the two-point try failed, so the Cowboys never got inside the number.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
The Eagles cashed +7.5 and lost 19-17 on a 57-yard Cam Little field goal as time expired. Jake Elliott had put Philadelphia ahead 17-16 from 48 with eight seconds left, and that was still not enough clock. Philly's offense was dreadful (232 yards, 4.0 a play, 1.9 a carry with Dameon Pierce at 11 for 14). Trevor Lawrence threw for 331 and Parker Washington caught two touchdowns, 51 and 27 yards, for 124 on the day. Jacksonville was the better team by a lot and still needed a career kick to win by two.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
Green Bay was a 1.5-point home dog and won 31-7. Five Bears giveaways. Case Keenum went 11 of 19 for 108 and the Chicago offense managed 3.8 a play. Jordan Love hit 25 of 31 for 367 and Christian Watson caught scoring throws of 42 and 53 yards on his way to 143. The Packers led 14-0 before Chicago did anything and it was 23-7 after three. Nothing about the box suggests the number was close to right.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
Houston laid 6.5 and covered easily, 26-3. Ka'imi Fairbairn kicked four field goals in the first half (the last from 53) and C.J. Stroud added a 2-yard run and a 9-yard throw to Jaylin Noel after the break. Tennessee had 187 yards, 3.5 a play, and Cam Ward took four sacks while throwing for 170. The Titans led 3-0 for about eight minutes of the first quarter. That was the game's only Tennessee moment.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
DolphinsWillis 15/27, 137 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT; Gordon II 18 car, 88 yds, 1 TD
The Bengals won 31-24 as a 7.5-point favorite and Miami cashed on a Malik Willis 1-yard run with 45 seconds left (the PAT failed, which did not matter). Joe Burrow threw four touchdowns on 190 yards, four different receivers, and Cincinnati led 28-10 after Ja'Marr Chase's 45-yarder late in the third. Miami was the better team per play, 5.4 to 4.9, and ran it at 7.3 a carry with Ollie Gordon at 18 for 88. Three Dolphins giveaways and a 15 of 27 day from Willis is why that did not turn into a win.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
New England laid 3.5 and won 45-17. Drake Maye went 26 of 34 for 374 and four touchdowns, the Patriots averaged 8.2 a play on 536 yards, and after Brock Bowers tied it 7-7 in the first quarter they scored 21 straight. Kirk Cousins threw for 243 and Bowers had 110, but Ashton Jeanty got 10 carries for 27 and the Raiders never ran it. One giveaway each. The score is the box.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
Minnesota laid 2.5 and won 23-13. New Orleans had 142 total yards, 3.4 a play, and went 2 of 10 on third down. Tyler Shough threw for 96 with two picks. The Saints tied it 13-13 on an 87-yard Jonas Sanker fumble return late in the third, which is the only reason this was a game at all. Aaron Jones answered with an 8-yard score on the first play of the fourth and Will Reichard hit from 55. Jones finished 25 for 113 and Kyler Murray went 24 of 30.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
The Jets won 17-12 as a 2.5-point favorite, so they covered by exactly the margin. Cleveland had 198 yards, went 4 of 16 on third down and Deshaun Watson took six sacks (2.6 net yards an attempt). The Browns still led 12-10 after Denzel Boston's 29-yard catch with 6:15 left. Braelon Allen went 22 yards for the winner at 3:01 and finished 24 for 116. Garrett Wilson had 104 and the Jets' 102 penalty yards kept the Browns alive longer than the offense deserved.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
Pittsburgh laid 3 and won 34-22. Jaylen Warren caught an 80-yard touchdown from Aaron Rodgers in the first quarter, ran 50 for another in the third and finished with 101 rushing and 87 receiving. Rodgers threw three scores on 235. The Colts kicked five field goals (Spencer Shrader from 57 and 56 in the first quarter alone), got within 24-22 with 11:42 left, and then Pat Freiermuth and a 54-yard Chris Boswell kick closed it. Zero turnovers in the game. Indianapolis went 4 of 15 on third down and Daniel Jones threw 44 times for no touchdowns.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
A 27-27 tie, and the Giants cashed +3.5 for it. Washington led 27-13 after Jayden Daniels' second rushing score with 11:05 left. He ran for 103 on nine carries (38 and 26-yard touchdowns) and threw for 199, but took five sacks. Jameis Winston threw 54 times for 326 and three touchdowns, Isaiah Likely at 7:20 and Malik Nabers at 1:43 to tie it. Nabers had 11 for 121. Overtime produced nothing. Washington ran it at 9.0 a carry and still could not put the game away, with two Giants giveaways to none.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
Denver laid 3 and won 23-17, which covers by three. Ugly all around: 224 yards for Denver, 237 for the Chargers, both around 4.0 a play, and the Broncos went 1 of 12 on third down. Three Chargers giveaways, Justin Herbert 14 of 24 for 121 with a pick. Kimani Vidal's 42-yard run gave LA a 17-10 lead late in the third, Courtland Sutton tied it at 8:53, then Wil Lutz kicked from 19 and 36 to win it. Bo Nix threw for 123.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
Detroit laid 4.5 and won 45-21. Arizona led 7-0 and then the Lions scored 24 straight before halftime. Jared Goff threw for 271 and three touchdowns, two to Jameson Williams, and Jahmyr Gibbs went 25 for 151 with two scores. Jacoby Brissett threw for 292 and three touchdowns but took five sacks and a pick. It was 38-14 after three and the Cardinals' 8 of 18 on third down never showed up on the scoreboard.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
San Francisco was a 3-point dog and won 32-29 on an Eddy Pineiro 44-yard field goal with 1:56 left. Seven giveaways between them (three Niners, four Seahawks) and eight sacks. Gracen Halton recovered a fumble in the end zone with 13 seconds left in the half for a 21-13 lead, Seattle scored 13 straight in the third to go up 26-21, and Brandin Cooks' 7-yard catch plus a two-point throw to Mike Evans put the 49ers back ahead at 11:02. Jason Myers kicked five field goals. Sam Darnold threw two picks. Evans caught 7 for 113.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
FalconsPenix Jr. 19/32, 240 yds, 1 TD; London 7 rec, 118 yds
Baltimore was a 3-point road dog and won 30-23 in overtime. Atlanta led 23-15 after Nick Folk's 48-yarder with 2:31 left, then Tyler Huntley hit Devontez Walker from 7 with 40 seconds left and Derrick Henry ran in the two-pointer. Huntley's 1-yard sneak won it in OT. Henry ran 24 for 102 and caught an 18-yard touchdown. Jessie Bates returned a fumble 36 yards for a Falcons score in the first quarter. Atlanta was slightly better per play (6.0 to 5.8), Drake London went 7 for 118, and the Ravens took four sacks and still won.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
Buffalo caught 3.5 on Monday night and won 37-34 in overtime on a Tyler Bass 45-yarder. The fourth quarter had six touchdowns. Puka Nacua put the Rams up 20-19, Josh Allen's sneak and two-point throw to Dalton Kincaid made it 27-20, Davante Adams tied it, James Cook scored from 5 with 1:39 left, and Kyren Williams tied it again with five seconds on the clock. Allen ran for 121 on ten carries and threw for 210 on only 19 attempts (one pick). Matthew Stafford threw it 54 times for 383, Nacua caught 17 for 138. The Bills averaged 7.8 a play and went 2 of 7 on third down, which tells you how many of their plays were explosive. 112 Buffalo penalty yards.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
PPR: 1 per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 6 per touchdown, 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown, -2 per interception. Half is half-PPR. Tgt% is the share of the team's targets.
Want our plays emailed to you? Sign up free below.
Free picks and weekly recaps, in your inbox.
Every card we play, emailed before game time, plus a recap of every CFB and NFL game each week. Every result tracked, wins and losses. Free, unsubscribe anytime.
RatingPoints better or worse than an average NFL team on a neutral field.
Off / DefOverall offense and defense rankings, adjusted for opponent: points and yards per play, each measured against the defenses and offenses a team has faced. No. 1 is best.
ProjCurrent record plus the win chance in every game left.
YdsYards per game on offense. Pass and Rush split it.
Opp YdsYards allowed per game.
PenPenalty yards per game. No. 1 is the cleanest team.
TOTurnover margin for the season.
OL / DLLine rankings from play-by-play: line yards per carry, sack rate, stuffs and short-yardage conversions for the offensive line, the same against for the defensive line. No. 1 is best. These are proxies from the play log, not charted blocking.
STSpecial teams ranking: field-goal pct, punt average, kick and punt return averages for and against, and return-touchdown margin. No. 1 is best.
LuckWins minus the wins its points scored and allowed would normally produce. Plus means the record runs ahead of the play.
1-ScoreRecord in games decided by 8 or fewer.
SOSAverage rating of opponents played. SOS Left is the ones still to play. No. 1 is the hardest.
RanksThe small number beside a stat is its national rank. No. 1 is best.
